If people agree that this is a possibility, then this may change a LOT of theories that people have come up with. What if Sayid was incorrect with how long he thought Danielle's transmission was? I mean, he's basing his theory of her being there for 16 years off a 30 second transmission. There's room for a lot of error there. For instance, what if it was a 15 second transmission. Suddenly Danielle has only been on the island for 8 years. More likely, what if it was around a 40-45 second transmission? NOW, it's possible that Danielle has been on the island for around 23-24 years or, in other words (if we believe the crash to have happened in 2004), enough time for her to have been there for the original DHARMA video. You know... DHARMA, scientists studying thing... Danielle was on a science expedition...

It's possible that Danielle was part of the original "incident" and the DHARMA people never found her... didn't know she was still alive... and just kept the experiments running, with the button pressing being for whatever. For instance, if the "incident" was someone discovering the crew, one of the hatches, these experiments, whatever, then maybe the button pushing is just one of the scientists ensuring that the security system goes on every once in awhile to ensure no subsequent visitors to the island end up finding another hatch...

Just my two cents... break time at work now. =)

Actually...wasn't there another voice after hers that broke down the number of times the message was played?

Transmission 15,988...beep...

I think that is how he did the math...damn..I just watched this yesterday too...

Either way...that french chick has been there a loooooooooooooong time...

.... Danielle has indeed been on the island for 16 years. - Javi

http://www.thefuselage.com/Threaded/showthread.php?t=14649

.... Danielle has indeed been on the island for 16 years. - Javi

http://www.thefuselage.com/Threaded/showthread.php?t=14649

I was upset for a moment because I thought you stole my thunder. However, Javi said that Danielle has indeed been on the island for 16 years. That does not say that she hasn't been on the island for even longer, so my theory is not discounted. In fact, his answer could have been stated like that for that exact reason: to make us think that she has been on the island for only 16 years, when that is not actually what he said.


Actually...wasn't there another voice after hers that broke down the number of times the message was played?

Transmission 15,988...beep...

I think that is how he did the math...damn..I just watched this yesterday too...

Either way...that french chick has been there a loooooooooooooong time...

And B-Pop, you're right. A voice did say how many times the message was repeated but Sayid used 30 seconds in his calculations... which is why if it was like 40 seconds, there would be a HUGE difference in the number of years (since the number of times the message was repeated was in the millions...)

I knew I wasn't crazy!

That voice was pretty damn scary on that transmission too..

B-Pop was without his little princess today...I feel like Charlie during his drying out period....*sigh*

i read it the same way... he said she has been there for 16 years... so really any number greater than 16 would mean javi is telling the truth...

purposely ambiguous, just like his episode writing...

Exactly Simplist...

So theories of her being there in 1988 may be exactly right, but this could enable hundreds of different theories... or shed new light on plenty that are already out there.

Such as those that believe Danielle was part of the experiments... My calculations would place her that right around the time that the video was made.

She is a strong connection to all of this. Her obvious mental instability is what keeps her from being taken seriously...yet...she is wise to the Others and their ways...wise to the Black Rock and it's mysteries and wise to the monster and what it does...

Come back Danielle....

But we HEARD the transmission. It was very close to 30 seconds. I didn't time it with a stopwatch, but somebody easily could.

How long was Danielle on the island before she changed the transmission? I know she was on the island almost 2 months before her team started getting sick.

I'm surprised that it hasn't been done yet. Maybe I'm wrong and it has. Of course, someone would have to take the number that is given and formulate that out to a number of years also. I'm waiting for someone to do it, as I don't have the time or resources right now (I'm at work). I'm looking forward to seeing if we can get a definitive answer. Maybe everyone just took Sayid's word as gospel or maybe we weren't given enough (either the full number or the full length of the message) to find out on our own.

How long was Danielle on the island before she changed the transmission? I know she was on the island almost 2 months before her team started getting sick.

That's a good point, too. Have we ever been told? Maybe she was there for 8 years before she found and changed the transmission.

Although by the sound of her transmission, her team had been killed fairly recently. Then again, maybe she was beyond crazy at that point. We see how Desmond was (even though she wasn't in his exact predicament - yet hers may still have been worse [trying to stay alive as opposed to little sleep..]) - so it's possible that if she had been there A LONG TIME that her message may have been a little kooky by that point.

But we HEARD the transmission. It was very close to 30 seconds. I didn't time it with a stopwatch, but somebody easily could.

My point as well.

Where are you getting that the transmission was longer than the 33 seconds as mentioned in the iterration? It wasn't Sayid's calculation..it was right there on the transmission.

I'm not "getting" that it was, I'm speculating. I've actually got no memory of the transmission from when I heard it... But did it actually say: This message is 33 seconds long?

Reminds me of Inspector Gadget: This message will self-destruct...

This may be a bit off topic, but it IS about Danielle and hearing the numbers transmitted, so....
she said they were scientists working on a project...they were on a ship, right? Heard the numbers and decided to investigate and the ship wrecked on the island. (am I remembering correctly?)

Here's my question: These are SCIENTISTS. Working on a project. Focused. They're not out for a Sunday cruise. Why on earth would some stupid numbers cause them to want to abandon their project to investigate?? The more I think about it, the fishier it sounds. Anybody??

Yes..he says "Its roughly 30 seconds long'.

I suppose you could squeeze 40 seconds out of it..but I'm just going by what he says in the dialogue.

RIGHT!! That's exactly what I'm getting at. We're talking 30 seconds determining 16 years by the number of iterations. That means that approximately every 2 seconds equals 1 more year. So if he's off by 6 seconds, she could have been on the island plus or minus 3 years, depending on which way he's off. If he's off by a whole 10-15 seconds....5 - 8 YEARS longer.

I mean, 30 seconds is easy to infer if you're trying to guess time, but it's also easy to be off by a little or a lot if you're not right. I don't remember him putting much time into figuring out how long the message was... I think he just used a nice easy number because he knew she'd been here a LONG time and 30 was easy to work with.

I'm sorry, but what would this change about anything? Just whether Danielle is involved in a deeper manner then we've been led to believe?

I know i read this, but I may be scatter brained. I dont think this would really change a theory...

The other thing I've wondered for awhile is...if the hatch is buried, why are there mirrors to see up into it. Because...oh hell...i'll start a new one.

Yeh, it would change a lot of theories if Danielle had been there a lot longer than we've been led to believe. Theories about how she got there, her role in DHARMA, whether or not the Lostaways can trust her, whether she has any sane information to give them... things involving Alex who would be a lot older....it could and would change a lot of theories if she'd been there more than 20 years.

Hi MarineOne-

Sorry I dropped that Javi link without explanation yesterday.lt was the end of my work day and I had to get out the door. I think you may be onto something. We've been having a discussion about whether Danielle is connected to Dharma in this thread:
http://www.thefuselage.com/Threaded/showthread.php?t=24294
There is a lot about that transmission that just doesn't add up.

How do we know for certain that the iteration count is ONLY for Danielle's transminssion? It could possibly include the initiation of the numbers transmission and never reset when Danielle changed the outgoing message. If that is the case, she hasn't been on the island long at all and that, in turn would go a long way in explaining how she still had functioning batteries and lightbulbs in her bunker.

That's exactly right, Aeryn. If that's the case, she hasn't been there nearly as long as we think... and if the message is 20 seconds, instead of 30 seconds, then she's suddenly only been there 10 years instead of 16, aside from your idea that maybe it wasn't reset when she changed the message.

On that note, though, if it wasn't reset then that changes a lot of things. First, there's no way the original numbers transmission was the exact length as Danielle's message, so the number of iterations would have no impact on estimating any length of time. One could assume, even, that the numbers transmission was a lot shorter, thereby adding A LOT to the iterations count, which would make the time that Danielle has been there even shorter.

BUT ... as proven earlier in this thread, Danielle has been on the island for AT LEAST 16 years...

I was upset for a moment because I thought you stole my thunder. However, Javi said that Danielle has indeed been on the island for 16 years. That does not say that she hasn't been on the island for even longer, so my theory is not discounted. In fact, his answer could have been stated like that for that exact reason: to make us think that she has been on the island for only 16 years, when that is not actually what he said.




And B-Pop, you're right. A voice did say how many times the message was repeated but Sayid used 30 seconds in his calculations... which is why if it was like 40 seconds, there would be a HUGE difference in the number of years (since the number of times the message was repeated was in the millions...)

when Javi says she has been there 16 years he does not insert "around" or "at least". Shes been there exactly 16 years stop inferring something that isnt there. Javi has out the "time estimated improperly" theory to rest!

when Javi says she has been there 16 years he does not insert "around" or "at least". Shes been there exactly 16 years stop inferring something that isnt there. Javi has out the "time estimated improperly" theory to rest!

Javi is good about answering questions...but he is sometimes purposely vague. Sometimes, he can be playfully vague. If he doesn't want to give away a certain detail, he won't. So, leaving out the words "around" and "at least" on purpose would be a good way to answer the question...without officially lying. People do that sort of thing all the time. And they (ther creators/writers/producers) do love to toy with us! So...I'm not sold yet!

when Javi says she has been there 16 years he does not insert "around" or "at least". Shes been there exactly 16 years stop inferring something that isnt there. Javi has out the "time estimated improperly" theory to rest!

So you don't know what you're talking about, and are trying to make me look like an idiot, I'll correct you. Here is what Javi said:

1. that sounds about right. so i'll say yes, close. and danielle has indeed been on the island for 16 years.

That doesn't quite look like the "exactly 16 years" that you're referring to so stop wasting thread space by claiming something is fact that hasn't been proven one way or the other.

If people agree that this is a possibility, then this may change a LOT of theories that people have come up with. What if Sayid was incorrect with how long he thought Danielle's transmission was? I mean, he's basing his theory of her being there for 16 years off a 30 second transmission. There's room for a lot of error there. For instance, what if it was a 15 second transmission. Suddenly Danielle has only been on the island for 8 years. More likely, what if it was around a 40-45 second transmission? NOW, it's possible that Danielle has been on the island for around 23-24 years or, in other words (if we believe the crash to have happened in 2004), enough time for her to have been there for the original DHARMA video. You know... DHARMA, scientists studying thing... Danielle was on a science expedition...

It's possible that Danielle was part of the original "incident" and the DHARMA people never found her... didn't know she was still alive... and just kept the experiments running, with the button pressing being for whatever. For instance, if the "incident" was someone discovering the crew, one of the hatches, these experiments, whatever, then maybe the button pushing is just one of the scientists ensuring that the security system goes on every once in awhile to ensure no subsequent visitors to the island end up finding another hatch...

Just my two cents... break time at work now. =)

I've got a question. We're saying that Sayid based his estimations in the iteration count and by how long the message was. Now does the iteration count get repeated every time the message is played? If so, then we are talking about a much longer message ergo Danielle has been on the island much longer.

I've got a feeling Danielle has more to do with Dharma then we are led to believe. And I agree Javi left himself a lot of wiggle room in his post.......:hypocrit:

I've got a question. We're saying that Sayid based his estimations in the iteration count and by how long the message was. Now does the iteration count get repeated every time the message is played? If so, then we are talking about a much longer message ergo Danielle has been on the island much longer.

I've got a feeling Danielle has more to do with Dharma then we are led to believe. And I agree Javi left himself a lot of wiggle room in his post.......:hypocrit:

Well, I don't think that the iteration count repeats. I think that we could hear it increasing. I very well may be wrong but...

If it doesn't increase every time, then we can't use the original number even to estimate how long she'd been there. She could have changed it 4 weeks earlier and the number would still be repeating from however it originally got to that point.

Unless you're implying that the message counted iterations up to a certain point and then just kept repeating the same one eventually. But I can't see why that would happen if it was still repeating.

well, it is pretty easy to calculate. I let a friend borrow my season 1, but if i can get it back today i will time it and calculate it.
However, a few things to remember, the iteration is up in the 100,000's if i remember correctly. So, it is 6 digits long, when the iteration was 5 digits long it would have been a shorter message, 4 digits shorter and so on. the 1-4 digits is negligable because it only accounts for 1-9999. But the 5 digit iterations go from 10000 - 99999. But i dont think the difference will account for more than a couple days or maybe a week or so and we are talking about 16 years here anyway.
Anyway, if someone gets to it before me:
there are 3600s/hour which makes 24x3600 s/per day =86400 s/day
86400s/day x 365 day/year = 31536000 seconds/year
I think the rest is pretty straight forward.

It had to have been up over 16,000,000 iterations then. That alone would account for 15-some years. You're right; it would be easy enough. I just don't think about it at night when I'm home from work and I'm not even sure which episode it's on. I've got them all in digi-format on my comp at home. If you let me know the episode, I may be able to check it out. Actually, the episode number. I don't have them titled.

Well, I don't think that the iteration count repeats. I think that we could hear it increasing. I very well may be wrong but...

If it doesn't increase every time, then we can't use the original number even to estimate how long she'd been there. She could have changed it 4 weeks earlier and the number would still be repeating from however it originally got to that point.

Unless you're implying that the message counted iterations up to a certain point and then just kept repeating the same one eventually. But I can't see why that would happen if it was still repeating.

What I was trying to say was that when Danielles message completes a cycle did the iteration occur after every cycle of the message. So it would be: Message-iteration-Message-iteration.

well, it is pretty easy to calculate. I let a friend borrow my season 1, but if i can get it back today i will time it and calculate it.
However, a few things to remember, the iteration is up in the 100,000's if i remember correctly. So, it is 6 digits long, when the iteration was 5 digits long it would have been a shorter message, 4 digits shorter and so on. the 1-4 digits is negligable because it only accounts for 1-9999. But the 5 digit iterations go from 10000 - 99999. But i dont think the difference will account for more than a couple days or maybe a week or so and we are talking about 16 years here anyway.
Anyway, if someone gets to it before me:
there are 3600s/hour which makes 24x3600 s/per day =86400 s/day
86400s/day x 365 day/year = 31536000 seconds/year
I think the rest is pretty straight forward.

I wasn't sure if the iteration was a standard length no matter what number it was on. But I see your point......

it was in season 1 episode 2.

And yeah, i am pretty sure the iteration count is after every message because sayid knew before the count he said...oh the next one should be xxx,xxx. He knew ahead of time so it must repeat after every message and count up 1 by 1

And if it were around 16,000,000 iterations at 30 seconds each it would come out to 15.22 years

One more thing though, now that we are talking about the transmission. I know this should be another thread all together but what really makes me wonder about the transmission is that it is in french. Why on earth, if you speak perfect english, would you transmit a distress call in french. I mean, if it weren't for shannon, none of the survivors would have been even able to understand what it said.
I wonder if she has learned english since then in her 16 years on the island which would suggest hanging out with ethan or possibly some scientists or something.

it was in season 1 episode 2.

And yeah, i am pretty sure the iteration count is after every message because sayid knew before the count he said...oh the next one should be xxx,xxx. He knew ahead of time so it must repeat after every message and count up 1 by 1

And if it were around 16,000,000 iterations at 30 seconds each it would come out to 15.22 years

One more thing though, now that we are talking about the transmission. I know this should be another thread all together but what really makes me wonder about the transmission is that it is in French. Why on earth, if you speak perfect english, would you transmit a distress call in french. I mean, if it weren't for shannon, none of the survivors would have been even able to understand what it said.
I wonder if she has learned english since then in her 16 years on the island which would suggest hanging out with ethan or possibly some scientists or something.

I think she was bilingual all the time. Maybe Danielle was stressed out while creating the transmission and she spoke the language that was easy for her. Good point though, since more people would understand English.

Good point though, since more people would understand English.

That would really depend on where you were. Maybe her country of origin, or where the project the scientists were working on came from spoke French, so that's what she used...assuming those would be the people looking for them.

if what you say is true that she spoke the french on purpose even though she know english, then she was targeting a specific group of people to hear the signal which goes along with the other threads that say her employers(possibly dharma) may be on the island or nearby and she is letting them know she is at the black rock (of course random people from where ever wouldn't know what the black rock is anyway)

Alright, I went back and did all of the math on the length of the message. It appears that the message is actually 20 seconds long give or take a second. If we assume that this is correct with the number of iterations the message is around ten years old.

It could be that we should believe Sayid's figure which would leave it at 16 years and support the theory that Javi meant exactly 16 years.

If the message was intentionally 20 seconds and has thus only been repeating for 10 years this means that, knowing Danielle has been on the island for at least 16 years, she could have been there any length of time and we really have no facts to figure how long that actually has been

That would really depend on where you were. Maybe her country of origin, or where the project the scientists were working on came from spoke French, so that's what she used...assuming those would be the people looking for them.

Good point.....

if what you say is true that she spoke the french on purpose even though she know english, then she was targeting a specific group of people to hear the signal which goes along with the other threads that say her employers(possibly dharma) may be on the island or nearby and she is letting them know she is at the black rock (of course random people from where ever wouldn't know what the black rock is anyway)

Could there be a French connection between the Hanso Projects and the Dharma Inniciative?

Alright, I went back and did all of the math on the length of the message. It appears that the message is actually 20 seconds long give or take a second. If we assume that this is correct with the number of iterations the message is around ten years old.

It could be that we should believe Sayid's figure which would leave it at 16 years and support the theory that Javi meant exactly 16 years.

If the message was intentionally 20 seconds and has thus only been repeating for 10 years this means that, knowing Danielle has been on the island for at least 16 years, she could have been there any length of time and we really have no facts to figure how long that actually has been

Did you time the message with the iterration? Because that could make the message longer ergo means the message is older. Just a thought.

ok, i havn't checked it out myself, but if it is 20 seconds then you are right, it would be way less that sayid's 'in his head calculation'.
But we also have to remember, maybe the creators of lost didn't really take into account that it would be so closely scrutinized. After all, this was only episode #2. They had no way of knowing then that there would such a large following of people that would leave no rock unturned looking for clues.
Perhaps they didnt even do the math and just said 16 years because that what they wanted it to be.

That's a good possibility, Cisco (that they didn't realize the scutiny it would come under..). It's also a good possibility that Danielle had been on the island for 6 years before she found the radio tower and changed the transmission. It doesn't seem too far fetched that it may take awhile. We know how well the bunkers are hidden. That, of course, brings up the possibility that she had been on the island for longer than 16 years... so we're kind of back to square one. We definitely don't know how long she has been on the island, just that it's been at least 16 years. Hmm...

its possible for her to wait 6 years. But still sayid didnt take that into account when he guestimated the time. So I am assuming the creators want us to believe the transmission has infact been there for 16 years.
Now, if i was on an island with all that crazy stuff going on and knew that there was a signal going out. I would probably take care of changing it in about the first couple weeks or so. Unless of course she was supposed to be on the island(she worked there) like many think, then she would have had no reason to change it for a long period of time.



Also, we dont know if he did that 20 sec calculation with the iteration included (however I am fairly positive he would have included it).

Hmm..well he'd really have to include the iteration for it to be somewhat accurate.

If the iteration count takes as long as the message and he doesn't include it in his "30 seconds" then the length of time that the message had been repeating would be twice that which he came up with. (Notice the use of the word if. I'm not stating that any of it is as I'm saying, just a roundabout way of explanation)

yeah, i remember the iteration message saying somethink like

iteration x x x x x x x

with about 8 or 9 numbers so it would probably last about 10 seconds or so.

ok, i havn't checked it out myself, but if it is 20 seconds then you are right, it would be way less that sayid's 'in his head calculation'.
But we also have to remember, maybe the creators of lost didn't really take into account that it would be so closely scrutinized. After all, this was only episode #2. They had no way of knowing then that there would such a large following of people that would leave no rock unturned looking for clues.
Perhaps they didnt even do the math and just said 16 years because that what they wanted it to be.

Thats a good point. I bet that the creators are much more careful now.

The figures I did included the iteration. If it were just the message oit would be even shorter.

The figures I did included the iteration. If it were just the message oit would be even shorter.

Hmmm.....
Has this ever been resolved to any degree?

30 seconds * 15 million iterations = 14.27 years
40 seconds * 15 million iterations = 19.03 years.

The length of time of the message makes a huge amount of difference in the time it has been playing.

the clip doesn't sound like its 30 secounds,
anyways yes this could change alot of theories if this is true

This may be a bit off topic, but it IS about Danielle and hearing the numbers transmitted, so....
she said they were scientists working on a project...they were on a ship, right? Heard the numbers and decided to investigate and the ship wrecked on the island. (am I remembering correctly?)

Here's my question: These are SCIENTISTS. Working on a project. Focused. They're not out for a Sunday cruise. Why on earth would some stupid numbers cause them to want to abandon their project to investigate?? The more I think about it, the fishier it sounds. Anybody??

Thank you!!! Thats my question as well.

OK, lets put this to bed. First of all she couldn't have been there longer than the 16.45 yrs that iteration 17294531 would have calculated out to assuming the message is 30 secs. Why do I say this? Sam toomey heard the numbers being broadcast 16 1/2 yrs ago according to his wife. If Danielle has been on the island, oh lets say 18 yrs she would have changed the broadcast 17 yrs 10 months ago to her distress signal. If this had been done then Sam would have never heard the numbers being broadcast, he would have heard Danielle's distress call.
When you listen closely you hear the iteration being announced and then a beep. If you time them you will get this:

17294531 0.0 secs
17294532 20.0 secs
17294533 40.0 secs
17294534 53.0 secs
17294535 1 min 14 secs

All are spaced at 20 secs accept for one which the gap between iterations is 13.0 secs. I think we have to accept what the writers are trying to lead us to which is that Sam Toomey heard the numbers 16.5 years ago. Danielle changed the numbers shortly thereafter. And things proceeded along after that.