I wanted to know where that island really was so i made a little research in the light of the infos we were given

first of all, only 2 passenger plane companies operate non-stop SYD-LAX flights on a regular basis (Qantas and UA)
I went to Qantas website, and got the flight plan for flight #8 that flies on weekends at the aproximate times flight 815 was supposed to fly (departure at 1250 arrival at 2220 the next day)

i drew this flight plan on a south pacific map (i will provide that map at the end of the post - the flight path is the pinkish line)

The plane was 6 hours into the flight according to the pilot when they lost radio contact
6 Hours at cruising speed (taking the take off and ascent time into account) would locate this radio loss point somewhere very close to the equator (it not on that exact location)
I crossed referenced that with flight paths and flight time from Sydney to Honolulu to get a fair estimate of that position

we know that when they lost radio contact, they decided to head towards Fiji, but we don't know how long they flew, or if they followed their flight plan for some time before turning back, so this was a dead end for the plane flight path

I then turned to Danielle's report of her trip
They sailed out of Tahiti (papeete is the obvious choice) and sailed for 3 days before they hit trouble
I checked the speed of several boats, including scientific expedition boats, (one of which being "La Calypso" form Jacques Yves Cousteau, a former US mine sweeper that sailed 12 knots) The most likely speed of Danielle's boat should have been somewhere between 12 and 20 knots, which gave me a range for 3 days of between 1220 and 1650 miles (ground miles not nautical miles)

i drew two circles centered on Tahiti (the orange circles on the map)
the inner circle is the pessimistic estimate of the ship's range covered in 3 days
the outer circle is the optimistic estimate of that range

i also drew two circles centered on the estimated position of the plane when it lost its radio (red circles on the map)
the inner circle represents a pessimistic estimate of the plane's range, and the outer circle represents an optimistic estimate of that range
i have taken into account the fact that they may not have turned back at once, and the cruising speed of that kind of plane (around 900 km/h, and an estimate of 1 to 2 hours flight time from the radio loss point)
The outer red circle represents about 3 hours flight from radio loss point

both ship and plane ended up on the same island, meaning that the location of this island is somewhere where the circles meet and overlap

i have pointed out two zones on the map
the one marked "1" is the most likely location of the island
the one marked "2" is a "very possible" location

that would put the island somewhere between Kirabati and Tonga, with a midpoint around Samoa, including the Phoenix island which have been brought up by lostbylost on another thread

the location on the island could very well be on the date line if we assume that the boat sailed just a little bit faster than estimated (just 1 miles per hour would be enough to reach that date line from the optimistic estimate range, or alternately we may consider that when Danielle said 3 days, it might have been 3 days plus a few hours
in that case they might be ON the date line, and this may have a "meaning"

now here is the map (sorry the webspace provider is sometimes way too slow)
http://www.ifrance.com/tarf/oceania3.gif

the estimates do not permit to pinpoint the location of the island, but it enables us to narrow it down a lot

on a side note, these calculations pointed out one thing
it is sad to not that if they had followed a direct course to Fidji, they might have made it before the plane broke for whatever reason, but we must consider that the plane "met" with the boat, so this points out that they did not really head towards fiji
speculations go as to know if the plane's compass and GPS were also malfunctionning. These calculations hint that the radio was not the only piece of equipment that was broken, or that the heading was purposedely "off course" from fidji (meaning the crew has led them to the island on purpose)

Great work Tarf. My gut, as Locke would say, tells me the Date Line is important. Especially the fact that it was changed in the mdi 1990's and juts out the way it does now. I would also be interested in knowing if you could actually plot the Lat & Long. of your points 1&2.

great joband a lot of work Tarf nice map too
Based on the general assumed info

I would also be interested in knowing if you could actually plot the Lat & Long. of your points 1&2.


points 1 & 2 are quite wide areas

and i know i will sound like i'm doing wishful thinking, but when i look at these locations, latitudes and logitudes do come with 4, 8, 15 and possibly 16 figures :)

lattitudes are between 3 or 4° South (Kiribati) to 20 or 23° south (Tonga) *=> 23°S is the tropic of capricorn (one of the cursed numbers by the way)

longitudes will range from 176°W (4°E of the date line) to 172°W (8°E of the date line)

to make a convinient point (not backed up by evidence) i'd say that the island is at one of the coordinates included in the range :
176°W & 172°W
4°S & 16°S

172°W & 15°S *(would make 8, 15 from the date line referential) would be nice, but this is really a reachy speculation
although it would place that location at the crossing of the two inner circles on the map
somewhere 100 miles south of Samoa

but the area is too wide, and putting a cursed number as the longitude and latitude would just be wishful thinking (altough we might argue about that - i know i would :D )

Could you make a circle with Sydney as the center with the max distance that the plane could have flown without turning. This may not be possible though. Do we know the time of the 'crash'?

Very interesting!!!! And a GREAT job !
What I find equally fascinating is that if you use the coordinates; 4 8 15 and -162 3 42 (on mapquest), you end up in the same region, east of Howland and Baker Islands and south of *the Palmyra atoll.... And if using -4 8 15 you end up just south of Jarvis Island.......

i forgot to mention
the numbered areas are included within the red and orange lines
meaning that area 1 is the small area between the orange and red arcs between their 2 points of intersection
area 2 is included within the two arcs (red and orange) minus area 1

for the max range of the plane at cruising speed, we can't really know, they could have flown along the flight path for some time after the loss of the radio
the equator line is my estimate of the maximum range they have flown in a straight line (although it is not really a straight line)
they might have come short of the equator line before turning around, but even it they came short by a hundred miles it wouldn't change much the definition of the two "possible location" areas

Very interesting!!!! And a GREAT job !
What I find equally fascinating is that if you use the coordinates; 4 8 15 and -162 3 42 (on mapquest), you end up in the same region, east of Howland and Baker Islands and south of *the Palmyra atoll.... And if using -4 8 15 you end up just south of Jarvis Island.......


Much of my research and calculations have led me to this area. The Line Islands, Jarvis Island, Palmyra Atoll, Baker Island. Then I finally settled on the Phoenix Islands. What better place(name) could there be to coincide with what's happening on the show. Locke has said everyone gets a chance to start over. The Phoenix was reborn from the ashes. It's also interesting the these islands seem to attract ship that end up sinking. click on the links below. Also Tarf they speak of a scientific expedition to the Phoenix Islands that originates in Fiji. how would this effect your calculations.

http://www.wwfpacific.org.fj/phoenixbackground.htm

http://www.wwfpacific.org.fj/phoenix.htm

Also Tarf they speak of a scientific expedition to the Phoenix Islands that originates in Fiji. how would this effect your calculations.


well the Phoenix Islands are just dead center of Area #2 as defined by my calculations

there are some interesting stuff about the island
first there are 8 islands in this group :D
then there is the legend of Amelia Earhart possibly landing (and dying) there
then there is this ship that wrecked and the line that says the ship still sits high above the reef edge on that webpage you gave the URL to, kind of reminds me of the ship resting on a rock on Danielle's map

Right. And did you see the line they show of the scientific voyage that charts how they would reach the Islands?

It's dangerous to assume anything in/with Lost, but my guess is that the Phoenix islands may be the/an answer* ;)........
Or at least, a deserted, un-named island, in the same region.....

Nice work, Tarf!

The island they are on is so lush, mountainous, and, well, big. It's hard for me to make it fit with any of the atolls in the target area -- isn't an atoll technically a coral reef and a lagoon?

The Phoenix islands look pretty stark. Here's a link with info and a couple of maps and pictures.

http://www.pacificislandtravel.com/kiribati/about_destin/enderbury.html

Templeton

yes Templeton, i agree

but we are in a fictional work
There are two referentials Real world vs Fictional world

The show is filmed in Hawaii, and Hawaian islands have features that differ very largely from the atolls of the south pacific
There is a difference between the place where you actually shoot a movie, and the place where the action is supposed to take place (just like in LOTR, Middle Earth was in New Zealand)

The alleged location may have a meaning per se (or it may not) but we can't expect the crew to shoot Lost "on location" somewhere in the middle of nowhere.So arrangements have to be made and there are some discrepancy between the scenery of the alleged location and the scenery of the filming location
Finding the estimated position of the island will help us understand some facts, like why they weren't rescued
The island is supposed to be in the south pacific, and the way it looks like is something we have to take for granted, because it depends on the "set" the show is filmed on

Let's say that they make a movie supposed to be located on planet Mars, they most probably won't send a team there :D so they have to come with a close match. Specialists of Martian scenery will pick up the discrepancies, and the imprefections of the scenery. But what matters most to the plot is the supposed location

On Lost the real location of the island may or may not matter in the understanding of the plot, but if it does matter we have to accept that the "real life filming location" be transposed to the "Fictional life acting location"

What i mean is that we shouldn't stop at saying : "Geography rules out the fact that the pictures of the show be from anywhere near the estimated location". Of course it can't be, it is in Hawaii in the first place. But Hawaii will have to do as far as the pictures go, but as far as the plot goes there is (maybe) a need to locate that island somewhere where your are not likely at all to find such a scenery

Now think about what would happen if because of he budget issues they have to move the filming location to Los Angeles or somewhere else
The location of the island as necessited by the plot would still be somewhere in the south pacific
The pictures we see of the Lost island has a lesser relevancy than the intended location of the fictional island itself

I am MIGHTLY impressed. I think you're right on target. That's my gut feeling. Plus, as the other poster said, the Phoenix Islands correlate nicely with the theme of the show -- life, death, rebirth (the Circle of Life).

Just to add another "clue," since you speak of datelines and the possibility that the island lies on a dateline. Sawyer was recently seen reading "A Wrinkle in Time." Perhaps this has less to do with the book's bigger themes and was just a hint of where they are. If they are smack dab on the dateline, then they could be said to be living in a "wrinkle" in time.

I think this is a pretty interesting read, too. I only had the chance to skim it, but I'm hoping the more industrious of us out there can draw a little bit more out of it:

http://www.tighar.org/forum/Highlights1_20/highlights7.html

Could Amelia Earhart be lurking about our island? Or, could Ethan be Amelia's son? (Noonan would be his father.) Better still (though it was said it was only 40 years or so when Adam and Eve were found), could they be Earhart and Noonan?

if you want to go into the Amelia Earhart theory, let's do it :)

Amelia took off on July 2, 1937 (for cursed numbers addicts, it is 23 years after the start of WW1 and 8 years before the end of WW2 so 8 & 23 encompass the world wars from the date of her last departure :D )

the Oceanic plane crashed in 2004

1937 -> 2004 => 67 years

Jack said that it would take from 50 to 60 years for the clothes to decay that much (not 40)

Remember that from now on it is pure speculation, it does not intend to bring proof but to bring food for thoughts

so going back once again on the cursed numbers
assuming that Earhart and Nooman managed to survive on the island for 8 years, that would place their deaths 59 years ago
assuming that they managed to survive for 16 years (another cursed numbers) that would place their death 51 years ago

Assuming that the cursed numbers mean something about the Earhart story, and picking out the 8 & 16, their death would have occured somewhere between 51 & 59 years ago
51 to 59 fits nicely the 50 to 60 years estimate by Jack, i would say it fits almost too nicely

I sort of like the notion that Adam and Eve are Earhart and Noonan.

If you read much about the Phoenix Islands, you'll find that they've tried to settle them and that people still frequent the atoll -- at least from time to time. If each season is supposed to be about 40 days (42?), then it is coceivable that they would be found for several months (which would be several seasons). There's a lot they could discover in that time.

Here's my question, then. Ethan is pretty much whole-heartedly an American (or Canadian) by his accent, right? How do we account for this North American presence?

I think we are going to find that Danielle's ship isn't the only ship/plane to be attracted to and crash on the Island. Many Island in the area are the property of the U.S. there are also many area's that are frequented by north americans(Fiji, Tahiti, Australia).

yes Templeton, i agree

but we are in a fictional work
There are two referentials Real world vs Fictional world

The show is filmed in Hawaii, and Hawaian islands have features that differ very largely from the atolls of the south pacific intended location of the fictional island itself...


We are in agreement, Tarf. I probably didn't make myself clear -- I think your idea on the actual location, i.e., where in the Pacific Ocean they are, is great. But my own guess is that the island itself will never be identified as a real island. Rather there will probably turn out to be some "pseudoscientic" explanation for why this is a mysterious island, off the charts and out of sight of satellites. A Klingon cloaking device, perhaps :angel:

Cheers,
Templeton

I just found this article about the Phoenix islands.

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0402/feature3/

Check out the "Did You Know" portion at the end. Sound familiar??? A radio station established in the 30s, a shrinking population, old military equipment...

I seem to remember something about movement in the water early on. Maybe spawning parrotfish? Mantas?

Really great work on this thread.
Tarf, I have this big map of Ocenia that I've been using to look islands up on, maybe it will help. Sayid said they were very close to the Equator. 4 degrees is pretty close.

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/australia/oceania_ref02.jpg


You can look at almost any of the islands here

http://www.oceandots.com/pacific/

http://www.oceandots.com/pacific/line/teraina.htm My pick of the Line isalnds

Something I've wanted to point out to all mappers--not in a jerky way, but in a "did you consider..." way--all the maps I've seen have featured straight lines and such.* Airline flights are based on Great Circle routes.* From Salon.com:

Ask the pilot
Why stop in Anchorage on the way from Tahiti to Paris? Plus, the mysteries of the Muslim qibla.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Patrick Smith

March 7, 2003* |* A paragraph of some controversy from my Terminal One story a couple of weeks ago...

"I near a bank of payphones where, on the floor, three African Muslims are crouched toward Mecca. Actually, they are crouched more toward Bridgeport, Connecticut. Being a pilot I tend to have a reflexive (conditioned, if not natural) awareness of compass points and things geographical, and I notice they are facing the wrong direction. I choose to tell them, and when I do they are surprised."
*
Hopefully my geographical awareness is not always so badly construed, lest I haplessly deliver a plane full of people to, say, Minneapolis instead of Chicago. For as an annoyed, astute and completely humorless reader points out, I have led the poor Africans astray, failing to account for the spherical reality of our planet.

The implications here are important and interesting. To explain:

Thanks to the hard work of imperialist European explorers, and later confirmed by NASA photography, we have determined that the earth is round. (Technically it's not a sphere but a geoid, but we're not going there.) OK, we can live with that. But are we, in our attempts to decorate our offices and educate our kids, giving ourselves a false impression of the oceans and continents?

When the earth is crushed from its natural (round) state into a strictly horizontal one, it becomes distorted as the divisions of latitude and longitude stretch apart. Depending on the layout used -- something cartographers call "projection" -- the distortion can be grotesque. Many of us have grown up believing, for instance, that Greenland is about ten times larger than it really is, thanks to the preposterous polar dimensions of the commonly used Mercator projection. Some people call this "the Rand McNally Syndrome."

What this all means to navigation is that accurately surmising a long-distance, point-to-point course on a globe is very different from measuring one on a flat map. Try it yourself. Go and fetch three items: a globe, a typical atlas, and a length of dental floss. (We'll assume your atlas is one of those Americentric maps with North America in the center.)

With your gear in hand, let's travel now between New York City and Hong Kong.

First, lay out the shortest distance using only the atlas. The floss will point southwest from New York. It will pass over San Francisco, across the center of the Pacific Ocean near Midway Island, then south of Japan before finally reaching China. A very long distance.

Indeed it is. But now, floss your way to Hong Kong using the globe. Almost at once you will realize how lavishly impractical the above routing would be. For it's much less circuitous simply to bend your string over the top of the planet. And if you're taking one of Continental Airlines' 777s on this very flight, don't be baffled when you see the frozen Hudson Bay and Siberian tundra passing beneath you, rather than the Golden Gate Bridge and warm Pacific seas. The shortest distance between New York and Hong Kong is not southwesterly, it's almost due north.

That's the extreme, but the principle applies to many other long-range pairings. Traveling between continents, airplanes do not fly the straight lines evident on your atlas or wall map, but instead follow what are called Great Circle routes, the leanest mileage totals between cities, which we've mimicked with the floss test. (Calculating the precise arc of a Great Circle gets into spherical trigonometry, which I know nothing about and will not attempt to elaborate on.)

As things tend to go, real-life operations aren't so cleanly theoretical. Flights over the North Atlantic adhere to predetermined paths called "tracks," for example, and geopolitical frictions mandate various zigzags. But these are still in keeping, overall, with Great Circle courses.

And this is why passengers en route from America to Europe frequently find themselves not just high up, but high up, occasionally into the icy realm of "60 north," the latitude almost scraping the tip of Greenland. And in the Southern Hemisphere -- between Australia and South America, to cite one instance -- the same thing happens, except, as it were, upside down.

One French airline used to offer service between Tahiti, deep in the South Pacific, and Paris. Where would you guess that flight stopped for fuel? Would you believe Anchorage, Alaska? Using a regular map for reference, you'd be tempted to think the French pilots had done too much drinking on those Tahitian layovers, but when measured on the circular globe it makes perfect sense.

Which brings us back to our bewildered Muslims. By the same token, the most efficient routing between New York and Mecca is not toward the southeast, as I erroneously directed them, but northeast.

Required to periodically align themselves with a point so many thousands of miles away, many Muslims know how this works. To face the holy Kaaba at Mecca, Muslims employ the qibla, which is the shortest distance from where they're standing (or kneeling) -- a kind of Islamic Great Circle. Mohammed, it is said, could instantly determine the qibla without the aid of scientific instruments. My friends at Kennedy were searching for their qibla, only to find quibble instead with an itinerant pilot who didn't know what he was talking about. He was thinking flat when he should have been thinking round.

For what it's worth, however, my anecdote was something of a fuzzy reconstruction. I don't remember, exactly, which way the Muslims were facing when I found them. They may have been spinning about in a state of confusion beneath the blinding white lights of Terminal One, without sun, stars or compass for guidance. I chose "Bridgeport" because it sounded funny, and which, in fact, would have been the correct direction. Alas, I sent them southeasterly.

Passengers aboard Saudi Arabian Airlines, by the way, can avoid such disorientation thanks to the airline's satellite-aided "qibla compass." Some of the carrier's 747s and 777s also have prayer rooms in the aft coach section. Saudi pilots, though, as well as pilgrims on the Hajj, are probably just as interested in the shortest distance to the Red Sea port of Jeddah, about 40 miles west of Mecca. Jeddah is where the airport is.

I haven't tried this site yet, but it might help (if the writers were striving for accuracy):
http://gc.kls2.com/
and maybe
Map of SYD-LAX route using site (http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=SYD-LAX&RANGE=&PATH-COLOR=&PATH-UNITS=mi&SPEED-GROUND=&SPEED-UNITS=kts&RANGE-STYLE=best&RANGE-COLOR=&MAP-STYLE=)

Chicago - I believe tarf said in his original post that he used an actual flight plan, so he should have taken this into account.

tarf - That map is great. One thing I was thinking is that if the circles you draw are kinda the maxima and the minima distances the ship and boat could have traveled . . . shouldn't we be looking inthe areas where the spaces between those circles overlap?

Great job guys.

Something I've wanted to point out to all mappers--not in a jerky way, but in a "did you consider..." way--all the maps I've seen have featured straight lines and such.* Airline flights are based on Great Circle routes.* From Salon.com:

I haven't tried this site yet, but it might help (if the writers were striving for accuracy):
http://gc.kls2.com/
and maybe
Map of SYD-LAX route using site (http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=SYD-LAX&RANGE=&PATH-COLOR=&PATH-UNITS=mi&SPEED-GROUND=&SPEED-UNITS=kts&RANGE-STYLE=best&RANGE-COLOR=&MAP-STYLE=)



yes the curve of the earth was taken into account on the map i used to determine the range of the plane
actually if you follow the last URL you gave and look at the path from sydney to los angeles, you'll see that the route changes course somwhere around Hawaii where there is a curve inversion
on the map i drew you may notice the same course change at around the same point
the flight route pictured on my map are mostly straight lines because there is no way to actually represent a curved trajectory on a planar map
that's the tricks with maps since distances are not the same at the equator as at the poles
if you were standing right on one of the poles you would just have to perform a 360° turn on yourself to actually go "round the world" (so to speak) whereas at the equator you would have to "walk" for tens of thousands of kilometers perform that 360° spin around the world

the map provided on your last link actually looks like the air route to hawaii
it's all ballistics you know, when you want to hit something you can either shoot straight at the target or lob your projectile onto the target
this is the same for air routes where you actually lob the plane (it's a figure of speech but i think you will get the general idea)

i will also point you to the disclaimer found on that webpage where you have the Great Circle from sydney to Lax
This information may not be accurate or current and is not valid for navigation or flight planning. No warranty of fitness for any purpose is made or implied.
i think it pretty much speaks for itself

i will not go into more details about the calculation made, since it involves rather barbaric terms and beacon names used by pilots to report in their position to air traffic control

but you have a point here, when it comes to flying halfway round the globe (in the same hemisphere) the shortest route IS NOT the straight line
but SYD to LAX involves a change of hemisphere, which means that the apogee point (so to speak) is not near the pole, but is around the equator, which renders that kind of flight paths rather linear and straight line

i'll try to explain that

take a ball or an orange in your hand and draw the equator on this spherical object, you may do that wherever you want, it doesn't matter
now take a point in one of the hemispheres and another point directly opposite in the same hemisphere
in that specific case the length separating those two points depend on the lattitude of those points
but if the points are diametrically opposite on the same hemisphere, the sphere properties render the length equal wether you go in a straight line (following the curve on the same latitude) as if you went over the pole
if you pick two distinct points on the same hemisphere, it depends on their relative latitudes to determine if the "pole route" is shorter than the "straight route"
you must imagine that sphere as slices piles up on top of each other. Each one of those slices have a different diameter
When you try to determine the shortest route, you need to determine on which slices you will travel
the lesser the diameter of the slices the shorter the route
but when you travel from one hemisphere to the other, you WILL have to cross the largest slice in the process, you have no choice
in that case you need to change the referential, and the point where you cross the equator becomes the pole (so to speak)
The apogee point will be over the equator, because it is the slice with the largest diameter and you are forced to go through it
Except that in a flight from syd to lax, the route will be curved to the left in the southern hemisphere, will rather be straight around the equator, and curved to the right in the northern hemisphere (to follow the curve of the Earth)

What you need to do then is calculate you path so the largest diameter becomes the smallest (i know how crazy it may sound :D )
So in case of a transequatorial trip, the crossing point above the equator line becomes a "pole" (since you can rotate points on a sphere without changing the distances between those points) => during the earthquake that caused the tsunami in december 2004, Earth's axis shifted temporarily, and it made the rotation of all the points on earth as i just mentionned, it never changed the distances between cities, although for an exterior observer, say on the moon, every point of referene on earth would have shifted, pretty much like when you spin a ball

That's why when you fly across the equator, from one hemisphere to the other, starting from a lattitude that is somewhat equivalent to the lattitude of arrival (in absolute value) the flight path is tantamount to a straight line
Syd and LAX are not really on the same latitudes (in absolute value) therefore there is a mild curve in the flight path

well anyway, nothing you can't figure out yourself with a ball and a little imagination

sorry for the long explanation, i know it has not been all accurate, and it may offend or upset specialists, but i attempted to explain in a relatively understandable fashion, rather than making a pure scientific point

Amelia Earhart's last transmission

Her next destination was Howland Island, 2200 miles away, the longest over-water leg of the trip. To aid in radio communications, the U.S. Coat Guard cutter Itasca was stationed off Howland Island. The Lockheed Electra took off from Lae at 0:00 Greenwich Mean Time. 8 hours later she called in to Lae for the last time. At 19:30, Itasca received the following:

"KHAQQ calling Itasca. We must be on you but cannot see you...gas is running low..."

An hour later, the last message came in:

"We are in a line position of 157'- 337. Will report on 6210 kilocycles. Wait,listen on 6210 kilocycles. We are running North and South."

Would this triangulate with the other 2 crashes?

Nothing to say yet, just want to be able to find this thread later :o good stuff!

Would anyone here be able to calculate what time of day they crashed if they left Sydney at 1 pm?* (Assuming that they headed towards L.A. for 6 hours, and then turned around and flew for however many hours until they reached the location you figured out.)*

Great thread!

I think that will be a difficult task. All we know for sure is that 6 hours into the flight they had communications failure and decided to turn back to Fiji. We don't know at what point they turned back or how long they continued flying after turning back before the accident.

we can make an educated guess but that is more puzzling than answering anything

if they started a 1pm
6 hours into the flight => 7pm
they cross 3 time zones in their first 6 hours, then local time is 10pm
let's say they flew 2 more hours without radio => midngiht

that would place the time of crash around midgnight local time, that seems illogical according to the images in the show

they would have needed to fly for 6 hours after the radio loss and to have crossed 2 more time zones to crash at dawn (they didn't seem like they spent the night in the plane, no pillow, no blanket and they looked pretty fresh)

so the big deal is that if they took off around 1pm the crash time would be around 11pm and 2pm (guessing from 1 to 3 hours after radio loss)

is it the time of departure that is an error from the writers, or does it have a meaning that it was daylight although it should have been pitch black night ?

We have two clues as to departure time. The clock says 9:40 when Jack says he has to get off a plane in LA in 16 hours and bury his father. Jin and Sun are check in at 11:15 AM.

I asked this question before.

There is an announcement at the airport about flight 125 and the time is 9:40. Thar flight does not leave until 11:15am.

Is Jin behind Jack in the first flashback when Jack is arguing about his dad's coffin? I don't have White Rabbit on tape. Or do we only see Jin behind Jack in House of the Rising Sun?

They crash and then the sunsets.....Hummm.................missing time?

is it the time of departure that is an error from the writers, or does it have a meaning that it was daylight although it should have been pitch black night ?


Precisely, tarf!* That's what I was wondering.* That, and how much sun or sunset or sunrise would be involved, for a person to notice a turn.

trust nobody
they could have been heading west or south :chris:

I believe during White Rabbit we see Jack Arguing with the airline rep at 9:40.* Sun is supposed to leave the airport and get into the car at 11:15.* This could be a continuity problem in the script.

This is from White Rabbit

JACK:* (v.o.)* Sixteen hours ...

CUT TO:



[INT. SYDNEY AIRPORT - TERMINAL - DAY]

(Jack is at the counter talking with Chrissy.* Jin waits next in line for his
turn, his tickets in his hand with his coat over his arm.* Nearby, Sun stands,
waiting for him.)*

VOICE (WOMAN):* (over P.A.)* (PRE-LAP)* (v.o.)* 9:40 for Oceanic Flight 125
nonstop to Singapore leaving from gate 14 ...

CUT TO:



[INT. SYDNEY AIRPORT - TICKET COUNTER - DAY - FLASHBACK]

JACK:* (agitated)* What do you mean you won't put it on the plane?

CHRISSY (TICKET AGENT):* I'm sorry, Mr. Shephard, but our policy at boarding is
you must have the proper documentation.* There is just no latitude to --

JACK:* (interrupts)* No latitude.* No latitude.

CHRISSY (TICKET AGENT):* Without the documents --

JACK:* Look, you can't do this to me.* I'm ready to go now.*

CHRISSY (TICKET AGENT):* Perhaps another carrier --

JACK:* (shouts)* No!*

(Embarrassed by his sudden outburst, Jack looks around.* He takes a deep
breath.)

(We note that Jin is standing behind a blonde-woman waiting in line.* Jin
watches Jack.)*

(Jack takes a deep breath and tries again.)*

JACK:* I want you to listen to me, okay?* Because I'm asking you a favor.*
Chrissy, I'm standing in front of you in the same suit that I'm wearing to my
father's funeral, and I'm asking you a favor.* In sixteen hours, I need to land
at L.A.X. And I need that coffin to clear customs because there's gonna be a
hearse waiting there. And I need that hearse to take me and that coffin to a
cemetery.* Why?* Chrissy, why can't I just bring him to a funeral home and make
all the arrangements?* Why can't I really take my time with it?* Because --
because I need it to be done.* I need it to be over. (with tears in his eyes)* I
just -- I need to bury my father.

CUT TO:
END OF FLASHBACK
RESUME TO PRESENT.







This is from House of the Rising Sun.

JACK:* (o.s.)* ... I need to land at L.A.X. and I need that coffin to clear
customs, because there's gonna be a hearse waiting, and I need that hearse ...

(She watches Jin. She glances up at the clock: 11:15.)
(It's time.)*

LoL so Jin is in both flashbacks. I had mentioned this on another thread and someone wasn't sure that 9:40 was a time. What else could it be?
There is one more reference to the time when flight 125 is leaving.. Has Jack been arguing with Chrissy the whole time? 9:40 to 11:15 at least.
I think we need the whole thing and what ever happened Jack is gone from the counter and Jin gets his turn.

JACK:* (v.o.)* Sixteen hours ...

CUT TO:


[INT. SYDNEY AIRPORT - TERMINAL - DAY]

(Jack is at the counter talking with Chrissy.* Jin waits next in line for his
turn, his tickets in his hand with his coat over his arm.* Nearby, Sun stands,
waiting for him.)*

JACK:* (o.s.)* ... I need to land at L.A.X.* and I need that coffin to clear
customs, because there's gonna be a hearse waiting, and I need that hearse ...

(She watches Jin.* She glances up at the clock:* 11:15.)*

(It's time.)*

(Outside, she sees a black car at the curb.* She stares at the car just outside
the door.)

(Gathering up her courage, she prepares herself to leave.* She turns and looks
at Jin standing in line.* She starts to cry.)*

(Sun heads for the car.* She stops and cries.* Leaving is so difficult.* She
turns and looks over at Jin.)*

(He turns and looks at her.* He pulls out his hand from under his jacket and
holds up a small sprig of white flowers.* He smiles at her.)

(Through her tears, Sun smiles back.)

(Not suspecting a thing, Jin turns and continues to wait in line.)

(She looks up at the clock and out at the front door.* She takes several
breaths.)

(Cut to:* Jin waits in line.* After a long moment, Sun walks over to him and
takes her place next to him.)

(He holds out the small sprig of white flowers to her.* She takes it and sniffs.*
He turns and sees her crying.)*

JIN:* (concerned)* (in Korean)* [Subtitled:* Something wrong?]

(She holds the flowers to her nose and smells them.* She looks at him.)*

SUN:* (in Korean)* [Subtitled:* It's too beautiful.]

(He smiles, pleased.* He reaches for her and kisses her on her temple, resting
his forehead against hers.)*

(He glances at the counter and sees that it's his turn.* He lets her go, picks
up his things and walks out of camera frame toward the counter.)*

VOICE (MAN):* (on PA)* Final boarding call for Oceanic Flight 125 nonstop to
Singapore leaving from Gate 14.*
(Sun holds the flowers close to her, closes her eyes and cries.)*

VOICE (MAN):* (on PA)* All ticketed passengers should be aboard for imminent
departure.* Thank you.

(She takes several deep breaths trying to calm herself.)*

(She's made her choice.)

If you go back to my previous post, I've underlined and made the letters bold for the line that brings the two together.

I also remember seeing a clock right behind Jack that shows the time 9:40. Unless Jack has been standing there arguing for a little over an hour and a half and Sun and Jin have been waiting in line for the same amount of time, something doesn't jive.

If you go back to my previous post, I've underlined and made the letters bold for the line that brings the two together.

So do you think Jack has been arguing with Chrissy for an hour and twenty-five minutes? (some cross posting going on)
What time was fight 815 supposed to leave?
In the US they want you to be at the airport 3 hours ahead for international flights.
Wouldn't Sun want to leave Jin at the very last minute?
And did they delay flight 815 and let Jack get the paperwork he needed? (This seems possible to me because Jack left the counter. Some settlement must have been reached. Or Chrissy threatened to have airport security haul Jack off.)

I never thought that Christian Shepherd's body ever made it onto the plane.

http://www.lost-media.com/modules.php?name=coppermine&file=thumbnails&album=47&page=15

This is the page with the screen caps White Rabbit. Jin actually isn't on line behind Jack he's behind the blonde with the curly hair. He was waited on and Jack could still be arguing.

In the Screen Caps for House of the Rising Sun they don't have a screen cap of the clock (this is the spisode I think it's in) Also they don't show Jack in the screen caps.

If your on LI now you've either gotten up real early or been up real late.

I don't think so .

That's the million dollar question. What time did it leave.

Even if Jin and Sun were there early I can't see them being in the check-in line for that long a period of time. I don't know about the airport in Sydney but it looked like the first check-in area and not the boarding area. It probably would have been much harder for Sun to leave once they were in the boarding area.

I think they made some kind of exception, I don't know. For a while I thought Jack had taken an empty casket back but one of the writers answered a post saying his father was definately on the Island.

(Jack is at the counter talking with Chrissy. Jin waits next in line for his
turn, his tickets in his hand with his coat over his arm. Nearby, Sun stands,
waiting for him.)

According to this Jin would have to have waited the whole hour and half being next in line.

(Jack is at the counter talking with Chrissy.* Jin waits next in line for his
turn, his tickets in his hand with his coat over his arm.* Nearby, Sun stands,
waiting for him.)*

According to this Jin would have to have waited the whole* hour and half being next in line.


That's what the Transcript says but the pictures look to be different.
http://www.lost-media.com/modules.php?name=coppermine&file=displayimage&album=47&pos=560
http://www.lost-media.com/modules.php?name=coppermine&file=displayimage&album=47&pos=561

The arm of the blonde.

We also know that he transcripts don't tell you everything. Who ever has the tape needs to look at this section.

The trouble I have with the map (aside from the fact that it's small and doesn't show much detail) is that the circles emanate from the point at which the plane lost communications, when we know that they "turned back" (the pilot's words) in a south-westerly direction and flew far enough that they were 1000 miles off course when they finally crashed. IMHO, they circles should emanate from the point at which they were 1000 miles from where they were expected to be.

The projection I made back in January illustrates this:
http://www.geocities.com/mcmillerxxx/projection.html

Have a look at the "methodology" link too. :)

Jack said that he had to be in the U.S. in 16 hours, and the flight itself takes a minimum of 14, so wouldn't that place the Chrissy scene about two hours before the flight itself?

let's try another angle of approach

let's discard the PA announcment for the flight at 9:40 (just to make the speculation)

Sun's escape was scheduled at 11:15
Jin seemed to be the last in line. So including boarding time and taxi time on the runway the flight shoud have taken off around 12:15, 12:30 at most
They flew for 6 hours before losing radio contact, assuming that they crossed 3 time zones, which is likely according to the cruising speed of the plane and the location of sydney inside its time zone, the local time should have been 9:15 or 9:30pm when they lost the radio contact

Under those latitudes (assuming a latitude somewhere between kiribati and tonga) , sunset time in late september is between 5:50 and 6:10pm
which mean it would have been pitch black night when they lost the radio contact

sunrise time is around 5:40 to 6:00am

In Kate's flashback, we clearly see daylight when the plane breaks off
Assuming that the flashback is a true memory (not an implanted memory or a self told lie) this means that they have flown for the whole night
but it is highly improbable since there was no obvious sign of a night spent in the plane (blankets and such)

Anyway assuming that they indeed spent the night in the plane,
A plane will approximately cross one time zone every 2 hours at the equator (Earth is 40.000km around at the equator, 24 time zones => 1660km (give or take) for a time zone at the equator - a plane flies 900kmh/h at cruising speed => a rough 2 hours for one time zone)

they lost radio contact at 9:30pm (rounding here)
it was 8 hours to 8 hours and 30 minutes to daylight

so depending on their heading, the number of hours of flight from radio loss will vary
8 hours if they went straight south
7 hours if they crossed one time zone
6 hours if they crossed 2 time zones
if they went straight east, they would have crossed 3 time zones (maybe four) and the off course flight would have lasted around 4 hours

these calculations are only valid if we assume that they crashed just at dawn

That is inconsistant with what we saw on the show

There is also another problem
Jack told Chrissy that a hearse would be waiting 16 hours later in LA, but this is impossible
Sydney and LA are 6 times zones apart, meaning that when they take off in Sydney, in fact 6 hours have already passed (LA local time)
The flight is 12.000 km long, lasting 13 hours and 25 minutes (Qantas source)
He couldn't arrive no sooner that 19 or 20 hours after take off, not 16

Yet there is a possibility
If the plane really crashed at night, and the flashback we saw were just misleading when they showed a daylight sky, then that would fuel the theory that "the others" have had quite some time to toy around with the survivors and set up the crash scene
As far as the flashback go, we could assume that they remember a daylight time for the crash because there is a mental block that makes them refuse the idea that they "lost" some hours of their lives at the hands of "the others"

So the crash may have taken place at night and they only woke up from an "anesthesia" in the morning or in the afternoon the next day

One thing also seconds that theory
when the pilot woke up, he opens his eyes, seems startled and the first thing he asks is "How long has it been ?"
That would be the first question that would pop up in mind when the last thing you recall is flying at night, and you wake up and it's day
The fact that it was day seemed to be quite a shock to the pilot

For all we know, if they really flew more than a couple of hours (in the 8 hours off course flight) they could be somewhere near antartica ... (polar bears anyone ? :) )

If they really flew that long and went souh towards fidji, eventually going much further south, they could have hit an experimental island close to antartica, with some sort of climate control device
but that would cause some problems in the theory that Danielle's team was 3 days out of tahiti

OK, tarf, I love your analyses, but let's just say the flight was SCHEDULED to take off at 12:15, but it was actually delayed a few hours. Then it would be daylight. And then there would be nothing weird about it being daylight.

(Yes, as the resident business traveller, I am well-accustomed to several hour delays.)

If it took off at noon, it would be six hours of elapsed time or 6 pm* in Sydney as they were turning around, and then taking the minimum of six hours flying back towards Fiji-- the elapsed time would make it midnight in Sydney.* *But I don't know what time that would make it in Fiji.

In any case, it could be that they just didn't bother working this out to the nth degree of realisticness, but it intrigued me, as all discrepancies on this show do.* *:)

Aggghhh I meant to say, if it took off at two (because it was delayed) per WhiteSapphire....* (Then, 7 pm -2 am)**

And then there's another thing: if they were flying for much more than 12 hours, they would be expecting to be nearing L.A., where the time would be... what?* Would they be expecting darkness or light at that point?

I'd check that with a world time calculator but they all use that four-digit world time and it's beyond me.

Aggghhh I meant to say, if it took off at two (because it was delayed) per WhiteSapphire....* (Then, 7 pm -2 am)**

And then there's another thing: if they were flying for much more than 12 hours, they would be expecting to be nearing L.A., where the time would be... what?* Would they be expecting darkness or light at that point?

I'd check that with a world time calculator but they all use that four-digit world time and it's beyond me.


what does bother you with the 4 digits time ?
it's quite simple, substract 1200 from the 4 digit time, if the time was over 1200 then it's PM otherwise it is AM
example 1645 = 4:45pm

fidji is 3 time zones from sydney
LA is 6 hours
a flight taking off at 1pm from sydney and flying for 13 hours would actually last 19 hours (to obtain LA local time
arrival time was scheduled at 8am or 0800 (LA local time) for a flight departing sydney at 1pm or 1300 (sydney time)

in we assume that they have flown more than 3 hours, even off course, they would have hit, either fidji, or new zealand or tahiti or even hawaii, depending on their heading
at 35.000 feet with a full visibility (as hinted by Kate's flashback when the plane broke off) it is almost impossible that they could have flown more than 3 or 4 hours without coming across a suitable airport (or at least seeing a landmark they could use for navigation - even without navigation instruments)