The Valenzetti Equation and the meaning of the numbers

[CrimsonRabbit]

Originally Posted by lucky4me8

Oh dear, sorry so long-winded.

No worries. That's a helluva theory.

I'm most intrigued by your thoughts about the monster being an experiement to see if behaviors can be influenced. I've long thought the monster was Christian and/or Dave... its encounters certainly tested Jack and Hurley respectively. The monster may have been trying to see if manipulating their behaviors in certain ways could change one of the NUMBERS and save humanity.

[aWishResigned]

Originally Posted by lucky4me8

I think he's picked two warring but tribes in a remote area of Sri Lanka (it's rife with civil war) to use as a sample population. He's identified some genetic component, marker, particular allele, etc. that, if it remains constant in a given population, inevitably leads to some variation of war. Maybe it's ability to tolerate cognitive dissonance, or a predisposition to resist authority, or identification with the aggressor, or resistance to suggestion. Maybe it's a certain neurochemical profile, or people born with four toes, people who have no inner moral compass and will never be "good," people who are telepathic, who dream in color, who have more magnetite in their brains, or like chicken. Who knows.

So the Vik guys have calculated that if he can reduce the presence of this particular genotype in a given sample population by 30%, it will lead to a modification of one of the variables. So he's gotten his hands on a genetically engineered virus that will effectively zero in on this gene and eliminate the carrier. If he can kill 30% of people with this gene, it will be enough to change the composition of the population. He'll stop at 30%, because he won't cause any more suffering than absolutely necessary, that's the kind of guy he is. And if it works with these essentially disposable villagers, he'll release it in the general population.

But how does this relate to the Losties? Did the DI really fail? Have the Others, as a splinter group, succeeded quietly all this time in figuring out how to create utopian society? Personally, I think Hanso's on the island, and I really hope that this all ties in to why the Losties are there and isn't just a big two-season red herring. Oh dear, sorry so long-winded.

I completely agree with you on that.

Now, about the Losties, try this. What if the Others are the anti-Dharma? The scientists under the command of Mittelwerk (HIM). I know I've said this before (maybe even in this newly constructed thread) but, the Others seem to exhibit the 'ends justifying the means' attitude that our boy Mittelwerk is now so well known for. It could explain why the hatch-dwelling members of Dharma refer to them as 'hostiles'...

[lucky4me8]

Originally Posted by CrimsonRabbit

No worries. That's a helluva theory.

I'm most intrigued by your thoughts about the monster being an experiement to see if behaviors can be influenced. I've long thought the monster was Christian and/or Dave... its encounters certainly tested Jack and Hurley respectively. The monster may have been trying to see if manipulating their behaviors in certain ways could change one of the NUMBERS and save humanity.

Well, my half-baked theory on the monster is that it scans and zeros in on a person's most salient emotional constructs. Memories, images, etc. I think you could consider it one type of material application. Since they deny that it's nanobots, I think it must be some sort of fictional nano-like material based on the unique resources of the island, possibly housed in a self-replicating virus and powered by some kind of magnetic flux in the south part of the island. Maybe in some cases, and don't ask me how, as this causes me to lie awake at night, it's able to self-replicate and simulate things in a person's mental landscape. It must work like some kind of super-duper MRI, and record and translate the brain's electrical impulses into a visual language. Maybe the psychotropic substance in the food engenders receptiveness to it, or to the visions; maybe the vaccine protects against its ability to permeate or scan. I think the Others are deathly afraid of it and that's why they steer clear of the southern part of the island and had to get Henry out at all costs (maybe he took the vaccine before he set out - he was in the Swan for exactly 8 1/2 days and it only works for 9, so maybe that's why they had to send Michael). I think that's why they take the children as well - their minds are so receptive and impressionable - they'd be such easy prey to shape psychologically in whatever way suits your purpose.
Anyway, imagine the potential of something that could take the form of one of your most resonant memories or the person who has the most power to influence your behavior. As a weapon, it would have phenomenal power. Imagine soldiers or POWs seeing their sisters or mothers pleading with them to do something, like Eko following Yemi only in a life or death wartime situation. Alternatively, it could have enormous power to do good if in the right hands. However you use it, it would have enormous potential to influence behavior, IMHO.
I just can't imagine how it works and how it would be controlled or manipulated. Maybe it's not - like a mutating virus, it's taken on a life of its own? I know a fair amount about neuropsychology and I can't for the life of me figure it out.

---

Originally Posted by aWishResigned

I completely agree with you on that.

Now, about the Losties, try this. What if the Others are the anti-Dharma? The scientists under the command of Mittelwerk (HIM). I know I've said this before (maybe even in this newly constructed thread) but, the Others seem to exhibit the 'ends justifying the means' attitude that our boy Mittelwerk is now so well known for. It could explain why the hatch-dwelling members of Dharma refer to them as 'hostiles'...

I was thinking Hanso was HIM but I like this idea too! Maybe the Jump the Shark moment will be Henry bringing JKS to meet HIM, in his hemp-upholstered throne, and we'll just see the back of his head...and a long ponytail...

[EdMuse]

Originally Posted by golf_fan

There are 6 numbers (4 8 15 16 23 42)

There are 7 stations that I can see (Swan, Arrow, Staff, Flame, and ? (the Pearl), and stations C3 and C4 which may or may not exist.)...

...At first I had in my mind that there wer 6 stations until I looked at the blast door map again. But, my theory mat still be plausible. I was thinking that each of the six stations (including the Swan for it electromagnetics) are the stations to experiment on the variables of the equation

Or maybe one station for each number plus the Swan, with it's huge bank of computers, as a central processing station.

Originally Posted by CrimsonRabbit

I wonder though why the NUMBERS needed to be broadcast.

Originally Posted by ForgivenTheWarlord

Ooh! Ooh! I have input!

The film goes on to say something about how one of the people studying may change one of the numbers by changing their environment.

So, I think that the "numbers" Are the output and what I think is happening on the island is different experiments to try and alter the environment in such a way that it causes a change in the "numbers". The "numbers" are being broadcast repeatedly so they will know the Instant they get something right and one of the values change.

I was just going to post exactly the same explanation! Hey, FTW, we actually agree on something!

It would also seem to me that this means that the computers in the Swan (or elsewhere) may be constantly processing the equation and outputting the numbers for transmission. So why they would have to be input in the Swan every 108 minutes, I still don't know (as I've said before, we're not going to get a complete explanation of the nature of the numbers, here).

Oh, wait! I have an idea! Maybe while the DHARMA Initiative was still active, they had computers constantly recalculating the equation and broadcasting the numbers. But after the incidents and the abandonment of the initiative, the numbers still had to be broadcast, but since the initiative was defunct, they knew the numbers wouldn't be changing, so they just had hatch monkeys enter them into the computer to be broadcast out. Um, why? Well... Okay, I got nothing.

Okay, how about this! If the DHARMA Initiative were to succeed, it would, for some reason, take a different set of numbers, whatever those core values had been changed to, to make the execute button work. So, if 4 8 15 16 23 42 come over the transmission, they know nothing has changed. If nothing comes over, they know the numbers have changed, and unfortunately, the magnet is going nutty, too. If new numbers come over, they know the numbers have changed and everything is still okay with the magnet, too. Okay, so, it's not much better than my last idea, but hey, it's late and I'm tired.

Originally Posted by arnezami

That said. They did some promises. Which is always risky. We'll have to wait and see what will still be revealed. Although I have the feeling the Numbers are "explained" now.

Actually, I'm happy with the amount of information that's been released, and I don't have a big problem with it having been realeased outside of the show, as I think most of it will be recounted in the show (I still hold that we'll see that orientation film again, and I'm thinking it will be in 3:1).

That said, I think the revelation of the "nature of the numbers" was a little like "the challah." We were supposed to get this beig reveal at the end of LTDA, and after it was over, I recall discussion along the lines of "so what was 'the challah?' The fact that Desmond thinks that by not pushing the button, he crashed the plane?" I wonder sometimes if TPTB don't get caught in their own traps, making things so deeply enigmatic that they can't always find ways to reveal the solutions.

Originally Posted by TheHade

(By the way, does anybody have an idea how that discharging process actually works, i.e. what happens to all that energy?)

My hypothesis-- It's been related to us that there's a big electromagnet, right? An electromagnet needs an electrical power source. So, somewhere hooked up to this thing is the equivalent of a hundred thoused people scuffing their sneakers on a carpet, and when the execute button is pushed, they all touch a doorknob. What I mean is that there's an electrostatic charge that is, for some reason, constantly building. The stronger the charge gets, the more current to the electromagnet, and the stronger it gets. Entering the numbers and hitting execute shorts it to ground, discharging the electrical charge (not some sort of magnetic energy), and causing it to have to start building up all over again.

Originally Posted by Trixired

3rd...I still think it's funny that if these numbers are the values for the end of the world or to predict everything , that they used 42. Any other Douglas Adams fans? Now what's the question....lol

So that's why the DHARMA Initiative failed-- 6 x 9 doesn't equal 42!

Originally Posted by ForgivenTheWarlord

That's a good point. I wonder what the organ harvesting could accomplish though?

The killing of one segment of the population in order to preserve the lives of another.

Three more quick things (sorry to be so long-winded; work has kept me from being able to be as steadily involved as I'd like to be) --

1. Question: where did this figure of 30% of the population come from?

2. If you change one core value of the equation, how much good does that do? It seems it would just change the amount of time we have left. Perhaps, though, once the "one true way" to change the outcome has been revealed, then the real work can start, figuring out how to make a meaningful change.

3. How would Valenzetti have been able to convince the UN that the results of the equation were valid? If I told you "I know with absolute certainty you're going to get into a car accident next week," you still wouldn't know with any certainty until next week.

[ForgivenTheWarlord]

Originally Posted by EdMuse

I was just going to post exactly the same explanation! Hey, FTW, we actually agree on something!

Uh oh, I think one of the core values just changed.

Originally Posted by EdMuse

I was just going to post exactly the same explanation! Hey, FTW, we actually agree on something!

It would also seem to me that this means that the computers in the Swan (or elsewhere) may be constantly processing the equation and outputting the numbers for transmission. So why they would have to be input in the Swan every 108 minutes, I still don't know (as I've said before, we're not going to get a complete explanation of the nature of the numbers, here).

Oh, wait! I have an idea! Maybe while the DHARMA Initiative was still active, they had computers constantly recalculating the equation and broadcasting the numbers. But after the incidents and the abandonment of the initiative, the numbers still had to be broadcast, but since the initiative was defunct, they knew the numbers wouldn't be changing, so they just had hatch monkeys enter them into the computer to be broadcast out. Um, why? Well... Okay, I got nothing.

Maybe the Hatch monkeys typing the numbers into the computer had nothing to do with the transmission and they only chose "the numbers" as what needed to be typed as a way of drilling those numbers into their heads (like putting the numbers outside the Hatch also). That way if one of the numbers on the transmission changed, because they had become so conditioned to what the numbers were, the difference would jump out at them more and they would react instantly.

That's the best I can do.

---

Originally Posted by lucky4me8

I think he's picked two warring but tribes in a remote area of Sri Lanka (it's rife with civil war) to use as a sample population. He's identified some genetic component, marker, particular allele, etc. that, if it remains constant in a given population, inevitably leads to some variation of war. Maybe it's ability to tolerate cognitive dissonance, or a predisposition to resist authority, or identification with the aggressor, or resistance to suggestion. Maybe it's a certain neurochemical profile, or people born with four toes, people who have no inner moral compass and will never be "good," people who are telepathic, who dream in color, who have more magnetite in their brains, or like chicken. Who knows.

So the Vik guys have calculated that if he can reduce the presence of this particular genotype in a given sample population by 30%, it will lead to a modification of one of the variables. So he's gotten his hands on a genetically engineered virus that will effectively zero in on this gene and eliminate the carrier. If he can kill 30% of people with this gene, it will be enough to change the composition of the population. He'll stop at 30%, because he won't cause any more suffering than absolutely necessary, that's the kind of guy he is. And if it works with these essentially disposable villagers, he'll release it in the general population.

But how does this relate to the Losties? Did the DI really fail? Have the Others, as a splinter group, succeeded quietly all this time in figuring out how to create utopian society? Personally, I think Hanso's on the island, and I really hope that this all ties in to why the Losties are there and isn't just a big two-season red herring. Oh dear, sorry so long-winded.

*whistles* That's a complicated theory right there... but it makes sense. That would be the difference between the "good" people and the "bad" people that The Others take. Maybe they only left the 30% out there to die.

[lucky4me8]

Originally Posted by EdMuse

If you change one core value of the equation, how much good does that do? It seems it would just change the amount of time we have left. Perhaps, though, once the "one true way" to change the outcome has been revealed, then the real work can start, figuring out how to make a meaningful change.

Well, we don't know what the equation itself looks like - we only know the core input values. Maybe one small modification changes the validity of the whole equation.

Originally Posted by ForgivenTheWarlord

Maybe the Hatch monkeys typing the numbers into the computer had nothing to do with the transmission and they only chose "the numbers" as what needed to be typed as a way of drilling those numbers into their heads (like putting the numbers outside the Hatch also). That way if one of the numbers on the transmission changed, because they had become so conditioned to what the numbers were, the difference would jump out at them more and they would react instantly.

That's the best I can do.

Maybe the entering of the numbers itself was a component of one of the variables, or constants, related to locus of control or compliance with authority. If someone chose to slack off, not knowing anyone was watching and losing faith that the button pushing does actually serve a function in itself (to maintain a different value of the equation - okay, I realize how convoluted this sounds), it would change the constant. Maybe the whole system is interrelated - one small change upsets the homeostasis. Maybe now that Desmond didn't push the button, one of the variables will have changed slightly, and (okay I might as well go for broke) this alerted Mittelwerk in 2004 and revived his interest in the project? Maybe they were able to modify one of the values on the island and Mittelwerk just wants everyone to think the DI failed so he could implement his Spider Protocol (the ugly stepsister or bad twin of the DI).
Or maybe the Others wanted the outside world to think that DHARMA failed because the research led to a discovery they wanted to hide from the world. Maybe they're living proof that some part of it worked - they have a version of shoeless Utopia and they don't want anyone to know? Well, maybe not.

Non sequitur: I wonder if Danielle and her team ever figured out "the meaning of the numbers." She said that they continued to search for it while they waited for rescue. And she certainly appears to have driven herself batty with, uh, many calculations... maybe she figured out the solution for world peace: kill all your coworkers, let strangers raise your children, and live alone in an underground bunker: a perfect one-woman utopia.

[arnezami]

I've been thinking about the Swan Station, the Magnetic Machine behind the concrete wall, the Numbers and the Valenzetti Equation. And I have come up with a theory that might explain how they are related. Its unfinished (of course) but I think it has some potential. And I believe it sort of ties in with many of the theories floating around here.

The Purpose of DHARMA:

From the DI video I think we can now safely assume that the purpose of the scientific experiments on the island was to try to change the core values of the VE. Its possible each station was responsible to study each individual (seemingly unchangable) number. And if they managed to change a number they would send the new string of numbers through the radio transmitter to inform THF/Alvar of their success.

My theory is that in order for them to be sure one of the numbers could be changed they had to test the new numbers first. And here is where the Magnetic Machine comes into the picture.

The Magnetic Machine:

I believe the Magnetic Machine is a simulator to test the (new) core values of the VE. The original Machine would work like this: you enter a set of 6 numbers and the countdown begins. During this countdown (108 minutes) the Machine would initialize itself according to the numbers inputted at the beginning. Then a gaint electromatic field would build up to (for example) trap sub-atomic particles in the centre of the machine. These particles would be arranged in such a way that when the countdown is finished they would simulate the complex workings of the Valenzetti Equation given the inputted numbers. A prototype of a quantum computer if you will. And if the experiment ended in the hieroglypics of "death" you knew that the similation had ended in the (simulated) destruction of mankind.

This (quantum-) mechanical simulator would be used whenever one of the stations found a possible change in one of the numbers. This would be the sole purpose of the Magnetic Machine: to test new numbers.

The Incident:

However at some point something gone wrong with the machine. Maybe a number was inputted wrongly or the terminal (where the numbers must be inputted) was used for the wrong purpose. Anyway, all hell broke lose. And they basicly had to shut down the Machine because it was radiating. Sort of a meltdown. Hence the concrete.

The problem now was nobody had direct access to the Machine and it got stuck in a "loop". The Machine kept starting the simulation and the only way to not let it go to the end was to enter Numbers into the computer. Effectively restarting the simluation (before it ended). This could however only be done in the last 4 minutes of the countdown. And because the already known Numbers were relatively safe they decided to always input these numbers. If however the simulation went through the full 108 minutes the outcome of it would always be "death". In the past that wasn't really a problem but because the Machine is now defective it is. They knew the Machine couldn't finish simulations (ending in "death") anymore without detroying itself by building up way to much magnetic force.

The Release:

Its possible the DI guys decided not to derstroy/disable the Machine because they thought that if the right numbers would be inputted (and there was still hope they could be found) that the simulator would work and would give an "alive" output in hieroglyphics. Destroying the Machine would effectively destroy any hope of finding the new Numbers because they couldn't be tested. So Desmond was "saving the world" by keeping the Machine working.

The turning of the key by Desmond did however destroy (or disable) the Magnetic Machine permanently and the result of that is there is no way anymore to test new numbers even if they are found.

Fenry saw the "lights in the sky" and knew the Machine was destroyed. But since he is no longer a DI follower he doesn't really care. He doesn't believe in the VE. And he knew this was bound to happen sometime.

The release of the magnetism was so big (this time) that the Antartic watching station was not only be able to pick up this anomaly but also "didn't miss it" this time: that is, the location was clearly determined this time.

Conclusion:

The above combines a lot of what we have learned so far into a fairly reasonable and coherent theory. Its still shaky but I think it has a lot of potential.

Let me know what you guys think of it .

Regards,

arnezami


PS. An analogue to this "simulator" would be the large computer in the classic movie "War Games" which predicts the outcome of a nuclear war.

[CrimsonRabbit]

I just asked Gregg some questions we've been asking ourselves here and he had some interesting reponses:

Me:

Now that the Lost Experience is winding down (looks like Javi, er DJ Dan's wrapping things up with his live podcast?) I had a few questions about what has been revealed:

*Did the NUMBERS need to be broadcast so the Hanso Foundation knew the exact moment one of the values changed?

*Do each of the NUMBERS as core values in the Equation also relate to the six experiments of the DHARMA Initiative. For example the end result of the Meteorology experiment was "8", Zoology was "42" etc.?

*And more a question about process: I'm fascinated that the Valenzetti Equation is an elegant mix of the Drake Equation and apocalyptic lore. Were the NUMBERS always meant to be that? How did you guys arrive at this concept? What inspired it?

Thanks, Gregg, as always!

Gregg:

From what I know, they knew initially that the numbers were related to the Drake equation in concept. I think it was Damon and Javi who came up with it, but I don't know for sure. I'm not sure what inspired it, but it was there from the beginning. Kinda cool, isn't it?

As far as your other questions, well that's more information that may or may not come out later.

So at least that's confirmation the Drake Equation was a huge part of Damon and Javi's thinking since the beginning. We should look at how people approached that equation in our approaches to Valenzetti.

[elpaw]

How does all this explain why the numbers are unlucky, for Leonard Simms and Hurley?

[alonlaudon]

How does all this explain why the numbers are unlucky, for Leonard Simms and Hurley?

Nothing can actually explain why the numbers are cursed (at least if you don't want that they'd introduce an ancient witch character, for example), but IMO, it's fitting that the numbers that represent death and the apocalypse would bring bad luck to those who use it. Hurley was right all along, the numbers *are* bad.