If Desmond is the black swan in this story, the only one capable of altering 'what happened, happened', then the biggest unanswered question may be 'How and why did this black swan get introduced into the equation in the first place?'. I'm thinking that Desmond may be a black pawn as well as a black swan. There's been a lot of speculation that Charles Widmore may end up being somewhat of a distraction, meant to avert our attention from the big players in the upcoming war. But what if Ben has been telling the truth (gasp)? Perhaps Charles is LOST's main protagonist.
Stepping back for a moment to clarify, it is true that a black swan, by Taleb's definition, is both rare and hard-to-predict. But we've seen that the usual rules of physics and probability don't always apply on the island, and I'm theorizing that, with knowledge of the island's special properties and the tools in place to implement this knowledge, perhaps a black swan could be 'created'. If a case can be made that Widmore orchestrated such an event, one would need to show that he had both the motive and resources to pull it off, and a 'smoking gun' would also help. I think we have seen all the above. Here's my case:
Motive
Charles actually has two possible motives for creating a black swan, greed and revenge. He clearly spelled these out during his conversation with Ben...
Quote:
WIDMORE: I know who you are, boy. What you are. I know everything you have you took from me...That island's mine, Benjamin. It always was. It will be again.
Widmore not only wants the island to himself, but he resents Ben (and possibly Richard) for giving him the boot.
Resources
To successfully create a black swan on the island, IMO, one would need an intimate knowledge of the island's special properties, connections with the the island's inhabitants, the ability to know ahead of time what 'corrections' a black swan would need to make in the first place, and huge financial backing. Charles may have had all of these. We know that he was in the Others' inner circle, and that he witnessed the appearance of the time traveling lostaways in the 1950's as well as the results of Ben's miraculous healing at the Temple. We also know, from TLE, that
Spoiler:
Widmore Industries has ties to the Hanso Foundation, thus indicating that, at the very least, Charles may have had access to the inner workings of the DHARMA Initiative.
Charles had also been funding Daniel's time travel research, and Theresa Spencer was at least some indication that rats were not the only ones capable of becoming intentionally 'unstuck'. Maybe Charles found a way, at some point, to unstick his own consciousness and 'travel' to the future, or perhaps he sent an unstuck 'mole' to get information for him. Armed with the knowledge of how things are 'supposed to be', he would have a pretty good idea of the changes a black swan would need to make in order to tilt the odds in his favor.
I also get the impression that Charles has been working with Eloise all along, and if these two each had the ability to 'unstick' themselves, it would explain Ellie's revised appearance to Desmond in the jewelry store. With Widmore's known wealth, his probable connections to both the Others and the DI, and Hawking's ability to locate the island, the rest falls into place...
The Smoking Gun
If we follow Desmond's path to the island, Widmore's fingerprints can be found at every turn. Charles, IMO, manipulated the events behind Desmond's arrival at the monestary, his relationship with Penny, their eventual split-up, his entry in the race around the world, his arrival on the island, the incident at the Swan Station, and Desmond's turning of the failsafe key to become LOST's black swan.
We know that both Eloise and Charles had a connection with brother Campbell, and I suspect that Widmore may have sent Campbell to lend Des a hand when he was down, guiding him to the monastery. And perhaps Ruth's brother, Derek, received a tip from Widmore about Desmond's whereabouts, triggering the brawl that led to Desmond's expulsion. Charles would then have been able to put Penny in a position to hook up with Desmond in the first place...
Quote:
MONK: All ten cases are ready to go. Desmond there is just getting the last one.
PENNY: Thank you, and my father sent the check in advance.
MONK: Please thank him for his generous donation. Always a pleasure to see you.
Charles may have also planted the seeds for Desmond's eventual break-up with his daughter. There's no doubt that Des left his "job interview" at Widmore's office a broken man, no longer sure that he had 'what it takes' to be Penny's husband. And once Desmond had taken the bait and split up with Penny, Widmore did what had to be done to insure that they didn't get back together before he reached the island. We know that he kept the letters Des sent to Penny from military prison, and it's not a stretch to imagine that he may have used his influence to arrange Desmond's dishonorable discharge in the first place.
Charles proceeded to throw flames on the fire of Desmond's passion for Penny by offering him a bribe to stay away from his daughter. With the flames sufficiently stoked, he then served up the perfect 'test' by which Desmond could prove his true courage and devotion to Penny, a race around the world. I'm guessing that Widmore was also behind Libby's fortuitous appearance at the coffee shop, along with, of all things, a sailboat for which she had absolutely no use.
If Widmore and Hawking are indeed a team, Charles may have also had some advance intelligence about a certain 'event window' which just happened to be on Desmond's trip itinerary. And a well-placed bribe may have done the trick in convincing Kelvin to "eliminate" Radzinsky and wait for Desmond to show up as his partner.
Certain things would need to be in place on the island, however, if Desmond was to become a black swan. Most notably, the failsafe key would need to be set up and ready to turn. But how could one plan for a scenario which resulted from something as apparently random and devastating as the Incident? Enter Daniel Faraday, hand-picked and funded by Charles Widmore, newly anointed as a scientist in the DHARMA initiative, and equipped with the knowledge and tools necessary to trigger an incident which would eventually require the pushing of a button or the turning of a failsafe key. I think that Widmore may have given Daniel some very specific instructions before he ever set foot on the freighter.
The potential fly in Widmore's ointment, however, is free will. Once Desmond became a black swan, he could theoretically choose his own path and ruin Widmore's plans for him. I believe we have already seen this happen. Des nearly succeeded in canceling his own trip to the island when he displaced his own consciousness at the jewelry store. Ellie's appearance to keep Desmond's free will in check is the best evidence, IMO, that she and Widmore have been working together, and that she has the ability to send her consciousness to a different point in time.
A couple of questions to throw out there. First, if Widmore is a major player in all of this, who, besides Ben, is opposing him, and how might Charles hope to use Desmond in the upcoming war? And secondly, what was Daniel's motivation in sending Desmond back to contact his mother? The only thing I can think of to explain the latter is that Dan's plea to Des came immediately after he saw Charlotte's nose bleed for the first time. Maybe he had a change of heart, and was hoping to use Desmond as a way to send a message of some sort. Knowing that Ben was probably aware of Dan's ties to Widmore, perhaps he sent Des to help Ben connect the dots between Ellie and Charles. Judging from the look on Ben's face when he found out Daniel and Eloise were related, maybe it worked.
If Desmond is the black swan in this story, the only one capable of altering 'what happened, happened', then the biggest unanswered question may be 'How and why did this black swan get introduced into the equation in the first place?'. I'm thinking that Desmond may be a black pawn as well as a black swan. There's been a lot of speculation that Charles Widmore may end up being somewhat of a distraction, meant to avert our attention from the big players in the upcoming war. But what if Ben has been telling the truth (gasp)? Perhaps Charles is LOST's main protagonist.
Stepping back for a moment to clarify, it is true that a black swan, by Taleb's definition, is both rare and hard-to-predict. But we've seen that the usual rules of physics and probability don't always apply on the island, and I'm theorizing that, with knowledge of the island's special properties and the tools in place to implement this knowledge, perhaps a black swan could be 'created'. If a case can be made that Widmore orchestrated such an event, one would need to show that he had both the motive and resources to pull it off, and a 'smoking gun' would also help. I think we have seen all the above. Here's my case:
Motive
Charles actually has two possible motives for creating a black swan, greed and revenge. He clearly spelled these out during his conversation with Ben...
Widmore not only wants the island to himself, but he resents Ben (and possibly Richard) for giving him the boot.
Resources
To successfully create a black swan on the island, IMO, one would need an intimate knowledge of the island's special properties, connections with the the island's inhabitants, the ability to know ahead of time what 'corrections' a black swan would need to make in the first place, and huge financial backing. Charles may have had all of these. We know that he was in the Others' inner circle, and that he witnessed the appearance of the time traveling lostaways in the 1950's as well as the results of Ben's miraculous healing at the Temple. We also know, from TLE, that
Spoiler:
Widmore Industries has ties to the Hanso Foundation, thus indicating that, at the very least, Charles may have had access to the inner workings of the DHARMA Initiative.
Charles had also been funding Daniel's time travel research, and Theresa Spencer was at least some indication that rats were not the only ones capable of becoming intentionally 'unstuck'. Maybe Charles found a way, at some point, to unstick his own consciousness and 'travel' to the future, or perhaps he sent an unstuck 'mole' to get information for him. Armed with the knowledge of how things are 'supposed to be', he would have a pretty good idea of the changes a black swan would need to make in order to tilt the odds in his favor.
I also get the impression that Charles has been working with Eloise all along, and if these two each had the ability to 'unstick' themselves, it would explain Ellie's revised appearance to Desmond in the jewelry store. With Widmore's known wealth, his probable connections to both the Others and the DI, and Hawking's ability to locate the island, the rest falls into place...
The Smoking Gun
If we follow Desmond's path to the island, Widmore's fingerprints can be found at every turn. Charles, IMO, manipulated the events behind Desmond's arrival at the monestary, his relationship with Penny, their eventual split-up, his entry in the race around the world, his arrival on the island, the incident at the Swan Station, and Desmond's turning of the failsafe key to become LOST's black swan.
We know that both Eloise and Charles had a connection with brother Campbell, and I suspect that Widmore may have sent Campbell to lend Des a hand when he was down, guiding him to the monastery. And perhaps Ruth's brother, Derek, received a tip from Widmore about Desmond's whereabouts, triggering the brawl that led to Desmond's expulsion. Charles would then have been able to put Penny in a position to hook up with Desmond in the first place...
Charles may have also planted the seeds for Desmond's eventual break-up with his daughter. There's no doubt that Des left his "job interview" at Widmore's office a broken man, no longer sure that he had 'what it takes' to be Penny's husband. And once Desmond had taken the bait and split up with Penny, Widmore did what had to be done to insure that they didn't get back together before he reached the island. We know that he kept the letters Des sent to Penny from military prison, and it's not a stretch to imagine that he may have used his influence to arrange Desmond's dishonorable discharge in the first place.
Charles proceeded to throw flames on the fire of Desmond's passion for Penny by offering him a bribe to stay away from his daughter. With the flames sufficiently stoked, he then served up the perfect 'test' by which Desmond could prove his true courage and devotion to Penny, a race around the world. I'm guessing that Widmore was also behind Libby's fortuitous appearance at the coffee shop, along with, of all things, a sailboat for which she had absolutely no use.
If Widmore and Hawking are indeed a team, Charles may have also had some advance intelligence about a certain 'event window' which just happened to be on Desmond's trip itinerary. And a well-placed bribe may have done the trick in convincing Kelvin to "eliminate" Radzinsky and wait for Desmond to show up as his partner.
Certain things would need to be in place on the island, however, if Desmond was to become a black swan. Most notably, the failsafe key would need to be set up and ready to turn. But how could one plan for a scenario which resulted from something as apparently random and devastating as the Incident? Enter Daniel Faraday, hand-picked and funded by Charles Widmore, newly anointed as a scientist in the DHARMA initiative, and equipped with the knowledge and tools necessary to trigger an incident which would eventually require the pushing of a button or the turning of a failsafe key. I think that Widmore may have given Daniel some very specific instructions before he ever set foot on the freighter.
The potential fly in Widmore's ointment, however, is free will. Once Desmond became a black swan, he could theoretically choose his own path and ruin Widmore's plans for him. I believe we have already seen this happen. Des nearly succeeded in canceling his own trip to the island when he displaced his own consciousness at the jewelry store. Ellie's appearance to keep Desmond's free will in check is the best evidence, IMO, that she and Widmore have been working together, and that she has the ability to send her consciousness to a different point in time.
A couple of questions to throw out there. First, if Widmore is a major player in all of this, who, besides Ben, is opposing him, and how might Charles hope to use Desmond in the upcoming war? And secondly, what was Daniel's motivation in sending Desmond back to contact his mother? The only thing I can think of to explain the latter is that Dan's plea to Des came immediately after he saw Charlotte's nose bleed for the first time. Maybe he had a change of heart, and was hoping to use Desmond as a way to send a message of some sort. Knowing that Ben was probably aware of Dan's ties to Widmore, perhaps he sent Des to help Ben connect the dots between Ellie and Charles. Judging from the look on Ben's face when he found out Daniel and Eloise were related, maybe it worked.
Any thoughts?
I had done some research in the last couple of years and found a definition of Black Swan also meaning 'non-existent' it was used in some old cultures to mean 'it doesn't exist' so I just always assumed that there wasn't really any black swan at all, that the Black Swan did not exist in any form now or later. I hope this makes sense to you, I have early onset so it's very difficult to comprehend and be able to explain. I'm thinking that Black Swan might be used in the same manner as a red herring, somewhat like an enigma wrapped in a mystery...hope I didn't confuse you
I CAN RESIST JUST ABOUT ANYTHING ... EXCEPT TEMPTATION
I ...A couple of questions to throw out there. First, if Widmore is a major player in all of this, who, besides Ben, is opposing him, and how might Charles hope to use Desmond in the upcoming war? And secondly, what was Daniel's motivation in sending Desmond back to contact his mother? The only thing I can think of to explain the latter is that Dan's plea to Des came immediately after he saw Charlotte's nose bleed for the first time. Maybe he had a change of heart, and was hoping to use Desmond as a way to send a message of some sort. Knowing that Ben was probably aware of Dan's ties to Widmore, perhaps he sent Des to help Ben connect the dots between Ellie and Charles. Judging from the look on Ben's face when he found out Daniel and Eloise were related, maybe it worked....Any thoughts?
I think Richard is opposing Widmore AND Ben. Do we know how many Other Leaders there were before Widmore? How many Other's Richard tested, but didn't like?
I thought Daniel's motivation to send Desmond was to stop the time jumping? But you are right. Just sending a message helps how? It did cause Ben to find Penny and Desmond. The only way to stop the jumping was to fix the donkey wheel, right? Daniel knew this, so why send Desmond to Hawking? Hmmm.
Last edited by too2strange; 04-26-2009 at 12:29 AM.
First, if Widmore is a major player in all of this, who, besides Ben, is opposing him, and how might Charles hope to use Desmond in the upcoming war?
If Widmore had some power within the Others organization, and Ben ended up being the cause of his exile, would Richard Alpert have chosen a side between the two? If he chose Ben, then Widmore would clearly see him as a threat. Widmore knows that the O6 are tied to Ben's exile and downfall, but when did he know this? And how much did he know about the role Desmond would play in their escape from the island? If Des is a trigger, and Widmore knows when key events occur, perhaps just pointing Des at these events will be enough. It seems like Widmore's ultimate goal is to get back to the island. Does he have to reconstruct a certain set of circumstances as the O6 did in order to return?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bicklefitch
And secondly, what was Daniel's motivation in sending Desmond back to contact his mother?
Daniel wrote in his journal, "If anything goes wrong, Desmond Hume will be my constant." I wonder if Charles Widmore gave him info that led him to write this. Did sending Desmond to visit Mrs. Hawking help solidify Desmond as a constant in some way? Perhaps more connections between Daniel and Desmond allow Daniel more temporal freedom?
Quote:
Originally Posted by too2strange
I thought Daniel's motivation to send Desmond was to stop the time jumping? But you are right. Just sending a message helps how? It did cause Ben to find Penny and Desmond. The only way to stop the jumping was to fix the donkey wheel, right?
If the island is time jumping, then I bet no one could find it reliably. At some point, Daniel is working for Widmore (albeit probably naively), and he would likely have intel from Widmore regarding Desmond's importance (per my thoughts above.) To stop the island jumping and give Widmore a chance to return, Daniel has got to take advantage of Desmond's "ability" to be at key places/times.
Desmond's connections to the O6, and their connection to Locke (who is the one who "fixes" the donkey wheel, and stops the island jumping), is what allows Daniel to use his "constant" effect.
Last night's episode solidified, for me, that both Widmore and Hawking have had inside information about the future (at least up until 2008). I also think that, despite their differences, they have been pushing the same agenda (they each encouraged Daniel's research, they each facilitated Daniel's return to the island, and, as mentioned in the original post, they were each pivotal in Desmond's emergence as a black swan). The big question is what is their underlying motivation in all of this?
To be willing to use their son (and, in Widmore's case, his daughter as well) as pawns in a larger game, the stakes must be pretty high. Maybe it will all come back to the Valenzetti equation. Hanso's interest in the equation had to do with the variables, which, if altered, might save the world. And Daniel had concluded that the variables in the island's future are people. Daniel, IMO, was on to something, but forgot that he could not be the crucial variable in this equation (because whatever happened, happened). The variable would need to be a black swan. I'm thinking that Ellie and Charles have clued into this, and, just maybe, they will not be the 'bad guys' after all.
Both Widmore and Hawking have read Daniel's journal. We've seen them play with people's lives and emotions in the past. Their motives have yet to be shown. However, of all the people being conned here, the way they use Daniel is horrible. What possible reason would they need to use him? Why not just tell him? If their deeds are so honorable, why not recruit Daniel?
Both Widmore and Hawking have read Daniel's journal. We've seen them play with people's lives and emotions in the past.
They seem to play the same kind of games Ben does, which is sort of becoming a trait of the Others, isn't it?
Daniel knew something though. Something that made him tell Jack that Ms. Hawking had mislead him. (And this is the part I don't like about Lost this season, where we get no resolution, nor even any hints, about what Daniel either knew or suspected.)
Daniel seemed pretty convinced that triggering the H-bomb was the only solution. I wonder if Ms. Hawking knew he was set on this, and shot him to prevent that. Perhaps the Incident on the island is less dangerous to the world at large than the triggering of the bomb. (I'd guess a bomb going off in 1977 would have caused enough furor to potentially trigger a war, the Cold War was still on, after all.)
Could Daniel have been wrong about Ms. Hawking's "guidance" of Jack?
Daniel knew something though. Something that made him tell Jack that Ms. Hawking had mislead him.
I think he knew, at the very least, that his mom wanted to make sure that what happened, happened. I'm guessing that Daniel's motivation was all about Charlotte, and finding a way to change history enough to keep her from coming back to the island.
Quote:
Daniel seemed pretty convinced that triggering the H-bomb was the only solution. I wonder if Ms. Hawking knew he was set on this, and shot him to prevent that. Perhaps the Incident on the island is less dangerous to the world at large than the triggering of the bomb.
Or maybe she knew that without the incident, Desmond could never become the black swan. Although her knowledge of the future seems to be limited at this point, she seemed pretty convinced that the island isn't through with Des yet.
...
If the island is time jumping, then I bet no one could find it reliably...
Desmond's connections to the O6, and their connection to Locke (who is the one who "fixes" the donkey wheel, and stops the island jumping), is what allows Daniel to use his "constant" effect.
I think it is the people on the Island "moving" and not the Island.
Well, the constant effect didn't seem to do him much good. Daniel is dead. Darn it anyway!
For Widmore and Hawking saving the Island is more important than anything or anyone else. The Island demands sacrifices. Painful ones. All we have seen Hawking do is to make sure that what happend still happened. She gets the 06 to return to the island knowing that Jack et al end up in Dharma days because for her that had already happened. As she told dear Desmond, she is helping!
Which is another thing that seems important in this thread's context... Daniel, notebook of everything physics and time travel he knows in hand, goes looking for his Hostile mother because only she will be able to help them get back to where they should be. Only his mother... not Daniel and Chang... but Ellie the rifle toting Other.
What does Daniel know about his mother that makes him believe she is more capable than he is in matters of physics and time travel? When Daniel sent Desmond to Oxford to find his mother, did he mean that she taught at the university there?
The only way Hawking could have preknowledge of some events is if she lived through the results or was told by someone from the future what was going to happen. She knows where Desmond will be when he CTTs to 1996. Knows the red shoes guy is going to die. And she knows the island is not done with Desmond yet....
which means she sees him on the island in her past... still his linear future, but her past. And in Hawking's present, she now doesn't know what will happen next because up until then she has been dedicated to making sure the past happened the way she experienced it. Her work on that front is complete.
It may be important to the war that is coming that things happened the way they happened. What isn't clear is if Hawking needed to do anything to make these things happen or not. Daniel seemed compelled to repeat his speech to little Charlotte... Jack felt utterly compelled to return to the island... Even Ms. Hawking says... if any changes are made the universe finds a way to make sure that what happened happened.
One huge clue that keeps repeating is that the characters have to want things before they can happen. In order to get them back to the island, they have to want to go. The only one who doesn't want to return is Sayid... and he goes off the deep end when he returns. In order to get Desmond to break up with Penny, Hawking convinces him he has a duty to return to the island... a greater goal, one that will make him a great man.
Desmond is more of a pawn to me. If he is able to break the circle of events then he would prove his swanness, I suppose. But for know, Desmond hasn't done anything unique. Think about the way Daniel reaches him... through a dream. Talking to Desmond on the island produced a dream for Desmond off island.
Perhaps Claire speaking to Kate on the island produces the dream she has about not bring Aaron back.
Daniel is dead. Darn it anyway! 
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