Bayesian Search Theory is using statistics in the search for lost objects. It uses probabilites and searches certain 'grids' to see if the lost object is there (often used for Sea Vessels)... The procedure is:
- Formulate a number of hypotheses about what happened to the vessel.
- Corresponding to each hypothesis construct a probability distribution for the location of the vessel
- Construct a probability distribution for actually finding an object in location X if it really is in location X. In an ocean search, this is usually a function of water depth - in shallow water your chances of finding an object are good if you are looking in the right place. In deep water your chances are reduced.
- Combine the above information coherently to produce an overall probability distribution. (Usually this simply means multiplying the two distributions together.) This gives the probability of finding the vessel by looking in location X, for all possible locations X. (This is like a contour map of probability.)
- Construct a search path which starts at the point of highest probability and 'scans' over high probability areas, then intermediate probabilities, then the low probability areas.
- Revise all the probabilities continuously as you search, i.e. if you have searched location X then the probability that the vessel is there is greatly reduced (though not usually zero) and the probabilities of all other locations must be increased.
The usage of numbers depends on a group of mathematicians deciding how much probability the lost object has of being in certain places... what if Danielle and her crew (and maybe Ethan and his crew) were these mathematicians? Danielle seems to be extremely intelligent (despite her obvious mental derangement), and all the numbers and formulae (with Sayid stated didn't make sense), could just be too complex for the castaways to understand, hence, why Sayid didn't understand them - or Shannon.
Danielle did state her purpose wasn't to come to the Island - but they must have gone there in the end for the reason, and I believe they thought the object they were looking for could have been there, but not the first searching place on the agenda. Maybe, they were looking for the black rock? We can't interpret this... but she seemed to know a lot about this vesel (though, this could be down to her searching it before the castaways got onto the Island).
Or, could 'The Others' be the survivors of the vessel which Danielle is looking for (or was looking for)..? It's plausible... as The Others could have been shipwrecked there, and Danielle could have been sent to find them, due to the probabilities/numbers. 'The Others' may have programmed the radio station to send out the 4 8 15 16 23 42 signal, as these were the numbers need to be input into the Bayesian Therom, to find the probabiltiies of being on the Island... which would of caused them to be found.
It's far-fetched... but, it's possible with all the strange losses of these transportation objects, and Danielle's complex formulae that this could play a part AND one more thing which is quite strange
: Morris H.
DeGroot wrote a book, "Probability & Statistics"... which focuses on a balanced approach of the classical and Bayesian methods...
If that is the case, then it could also be a metaphor for LOST itself.
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